Fatih Karagümrük 3-1 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 70% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Fatih Karagümrük face Samsunspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı plays host to Fatih Karagümrük versus Samsunspor in Süper Lig (matchday 38). Kick-off: Saturday 25 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Fatih Karagümrük (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Fatih Karagümrük's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Fatih Karagümrük are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Samsunspor's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
When travelling, Samsunspor have posted 0W 4D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Fatih Karagümrük against 1.00 for Samsunspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Fatih Karagümrük's last 10 home games and Samsunspor's last 10 away games) — Fatih Karagümrük have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Samsunspor in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Fatih Karagümrük, 1 for Samsunspor and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 6 Jan 2024, ended Fatih Karagümrük 0–1 Samsunspor — a Samsunspor win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Fatih Karagümrük goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 37 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Samsunspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 37 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 54% versus Samsunspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 49% | Samsunspor 40%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Fatih Karagümrük surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Samsunspor have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 44% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 2.21 xG and Samsunspor 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.240 / defence 0.981 | Samsunspor attack 0.589 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.245. Samsunspor's attack rating of 0.589 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.72. Data: built from Fatih Karagümrük's last 73 games and Samsunspor's last 37.
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 70% | Draw 21% | Samsunspor 9%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 1.43 | Draw 4.87 | Samsunspor 10.65. The model has a clear lean to Fatih Karagümrük (70%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fatih Karagümrük as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Fatih Karagümrük's last 10 home games and Samsunspor's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Fatih Karagümrük 70% (last 10 home games) | Samsunspor 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 38 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Saturday 25 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 70% | Draw 21% | Samsunspor 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Fatih Karagümrük 2.21 / Samsunspor 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.240 / def 0.981 | Samsunspor attack 0.589 / def 1.155 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Samsunspor xG
47%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fatih Karagümrük vs Samsunspor FAQs
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Samsunspor kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Samsunspor kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 25 May 2024 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Samsunspor?
Fatih Karagümrük 3 - 1 Samsunspor.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Samsunspor part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Samsunspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 38) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 70% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 9% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Samsunspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Fatih Karagümrük's attack at 1.24x the league average against Samsunspor's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 2.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Samsunspor's attack (0.59x) against Fatih Karagümrük's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from Fatih Karagümrük's last 73 games and Samsunspor's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 1-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
70%
1.43
21%
4.87
9%
10.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
3 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
2.93
0.72
Samsunspor xG
1.43
70%
Home win
4.87
21%
Draw
10.65
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
11%
9.09
Win to Nil
34%
2.93
1%
96.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 8.5 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.6 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fatih Karagümrük vs Samsunspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 0.72 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Samsunspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fatih Karagümrük come into this having played 37 games, going 9W 10D 18L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-L.
On the other side, Samsunspor sit at 1.16 PPG from 37 outings (11W 10D 16L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Fatih Karagümrük against 1.16 for Samsunspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Fatih Karagümrük's home form reads 7W 6D 5L across their last 18 home games, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Fatih Karagümrük are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Samsunspor have taken 0.44 points per game from their last 18 away games (1W 5D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.16 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Samsunspor's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fatih Karagümrük come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.11 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 37 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Current Season
Samsunspor
Current Season
Fatih Karagümrük (Home) vs Samsunspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fatih Karagümrük
Current Season
Samsunspor
Current Season
❓ Fatih Karagümrük vs Samsunspor Form FAQs
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 9W 10D 18L in their last 37 games (1.00 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 11W 10D 16L in their last 37 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Samsunspor away?
Fatih Karagümrük's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 1.50 PPG; Samsunspor away: 0.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Samsunspor, the earliest from January 2024. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 22 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Samsunspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Fatih Karagümrük
1
Draws
2
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Fatih Karagümrük vs Samsunspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Samsunspor?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Fatih Karagümrük have won 1, Samsunspor have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Samsunspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2026: Fatih Karagümrük 0-0 Samsunspor.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Samsunspor?
Samsunspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fatih Karagümrük 50%, Samsunspor 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Fatih Karagümrük) and 39% (Samsunspor).
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Samsunspor in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fatih Karagümrük vs Samsunspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fatih Karagümrük and Samsunspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent matches and 56% of Samsunspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Fatih Karagümrük and Samsunspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent games and 39% of Samsunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Samsunspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent matches and 67% of Samsunspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fatih Karagümrük cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Samsunspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fatih Karagümrük beat Samsunspor 3-1 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 38, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 2.21 xG and Samsunspor 0.72 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.24 / defence 0.98 against Samsunspor attack 0.59 / defence 1.16, drawn from 73/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 70% | Draw 21% | Samsunspor 9%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 70%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 49%, Samsunspor 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Samsunspor's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fatih Karagümrük 1.00 PPG, Samsunspor 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fatih Karagümrük win broke the near-deadlock. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.72 average — above their attacking norm. Samsunspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.