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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Fatih Karagümrük take on Kocaelispor.

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Analysis

Kocaelispor make the trip to Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı to face Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Sunday 14 December 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Current Form

Fatih Karagümrük's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 1W 1D 6L this season (8 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Kocaelispor have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Kocaelispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Kocaelispor's away record: 1W 1D 5L from 7 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.57 PPG). Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.57 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Kocaelispor arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Trading & In-Play

Fatih Karagümrük — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.

Kocaelispor — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 40% versus Kocaelispor 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Fatih Karagümrük 47% | Kocaelispor 20%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.13 xG and Kocaelispor 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.796 / defence 1.242 | Kocaelispor attack 0.714 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.302. Fatih Karagümrük's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 15 Fatih Karagümrük games / 15 Kocaelispor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 31% | Draw 36% | Kocaelispor 32%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 3.23 | Draw 2.78 | Kocaelispor 3.12. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Fatih Karagümrük 25% | Kocaelispor 43% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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