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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fatih Karagümrük face Fenerbahçe.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Fatih Karagümrük and Fenerbahçe meet at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Friday 13 March 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Current Form

Fatih Karagümrük's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Fatih Karagümrük at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Fenerbahçe have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Fenerbahçe have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Fenerbahçe arrive in superior form — a 1.80 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head ledger leans to Fenerbahçe, who have claimed 5 wins from 7 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with Fenerbahçe winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fenerbahçe have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading

Fatih Karagümrük half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

Fenerbahçe half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fatih Karagümrük 52% and Fenerbahçe 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 48% | Fenerbahçe 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 0.92 xG and Fenerbahçe 2.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.729 / defence 1.122 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.555 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.316 / away 1.226. Fatih Karagümrük's attack strength of 0.729 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack strength of 1.555 — the away xG of 2.14 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 25 Fatih Karagümrük games / 61 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 12% | Draw 25% | Fenerbahçe 63%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 8.33 | Draw 4.00 | Fenerbahçe 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (63%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Fenerbahçe are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Fatih Karagümrük 40% | Fenerbahçe 60%.

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