Fatih Karagümrük 3-0 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Fatih Karagümrük face Sivasspor.

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Fixture Analysis

Fatih Karagümrük welcome Sivasspor to Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı in Süper Lig (matchday 12). Kick-off is Saturday 11 November 2023 at 13:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 2W 5D 3L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

At home, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Sivasspor stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Sivasspor have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Fatih Karagümrük at 1.10 PPG versus Sivasspor's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Fatih Karagümrük, 1 for Sivasspor and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 4 Mar 2023, ended Fatih Karagümrük 4–3 Sivasspor — a Fatih Karagümrük win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Fatih Karagümrük trading profile (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

Sivasspor trading profile (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fatih Karagümrük 64% and Sivasspor 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 60% | Sivasspor 53%). Note also that Sivasspor surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Fatih Karagümrük recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.31 xG and Sivasspor 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.836 / defence 0.805 | Sivasspor attack 1.148 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.264. Data: built from Fatih Karagümrük's last 47 games and Sivasspor's last 47.

Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 38% | Draw 32% | Sivasspor 31%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 2.66 | Draw 3.16 | Sivasspor 3.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Fatih Karagümrük at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Fatih Karagümrük 30% (last 10 home games) | Sivasspor 60% (last 10 away games).

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