Fatih Karagümrük 0-0 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Samsunspor at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Fatih Karagümrük face Samsunspor.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı plays host to Fatih Karagümrük versus Samsunspor in Süper Lig (matchday 23). Kick-off: Sunday 22 February 2026 at 17:00 UK time.

Form

Fatih Karagümrük (all games): 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Fatih Karagümrük's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Samsunspor's record over their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

When travelling, Samsunspor have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.50 PPG for Fatih Karagümrük against 0.70 for Samsunspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Fatih Karagümrük, 2 for Samsunspor and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2025, ended Fatih Karagümrük 2–3 Samsunspor — a Samsunspor win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Fatih Karagümrük goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 22 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

Samsunspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 22 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 50% versus Samsunspor 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 50% | Samsunspor 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.12 xG and Samsunspor 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.786 / defence 1.217 | Samsunspor attack 0.976 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.289. Fatih Karagümrük's attack rating of 0.786 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.12. Fatih Karagümrük's defence rating of 1.217 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Samsunspor's projected output up. Data: built from Fatih Karagümrük's last 22 games and Samsunspor's last 58.

Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 25% | Draw 32% | Samsunspor 43%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 4.08 | Draw 3.10 | Samsunspor 2.31. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Samsunspor as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Samsunspor if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fatih Karagümrük 40% (last 10 home games) | Samsunspor 80% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights