Fatih Karagümrük 3-1 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 70%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fatih Karagümrük vs Samsunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı plays host to Fatih Karagümrük versus Samsunspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off: Saturday 25 May 2024 at 14:00 UTC.

Form

Fatih Karagümrük (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Fatih Karagümrük's home record at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Fatih Karagümrük are significantly better at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı than their overall form suggests.

Samsunspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Samsunspor have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Fatih Karagümrük against 1.00 for Samsunspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Fatih Karagümrük have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Samsunspor in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Fatih Karagümrük 0W, Samsunspor 1W, 0D.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Jan 2024, ended 0–1 with Samsunspor winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Fatih Karagümrük goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Samsunspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 54% versus Samsunspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 49% | Samsunspor 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 2.21 xG and Samsunspor 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.240 / defence 0.981 | Samsunspor attack 0.589 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.245. Data: 73 Fatih Karagümrük games / 37 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 70% | Draw 21% | Samsunspor 9%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 1.43 | Draw 4.76 | Samsunspor 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Fatih Karagümrük (70%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Fatih Karagümrük as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Fatih Karagümrük 70% | Samsunspor 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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