Fatih Karagümrük 2-1 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rizespor at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Fatih Karagümrük face Rizespor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rizespor make the trip to Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı to face Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig (matchday 28). The match kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Fatih Karagümrük have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Rizespor (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Rizespor have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Fatih Karagümrük, 1.20 for Rizespor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Fatih Karagümrük, 2 for Rizespor and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.6 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 3 Nov 2025, ended Fatih Karagümrük 0–1 Rizespor — a Rizespor win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Fatih Karagümrük goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Rizespor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 48% versus Rizespor 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 44% | Rizespor 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.11 xG and Rizespor 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.805 / defence 0.996 | Rizespor attack 1.126 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.166. Data: built from Fatih Karagümrük's last 27 games and Rizespor's last 62.
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 29% | Draw 33% | Rizespor 38%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 3.50 | Draw 3.02 | Rizespor 2.61. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rizespor at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rizespor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — mixed conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches — though recent form (Fatih Karagümrük's last 10 home games and Rizespor's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fatih Karagümrük 40% (last 10 home games) | Rizespor 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 28 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Sunday 5 April 2026 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 29% | Draw 33% | Rizespor 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.11 / Rizespor 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.805 / def 0.996 | Rizespor attack 1.126 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Rizespor xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor FAQs
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor?
Fatih Karagümrük 2 - 1 Rizespor.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 28) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 29% chance of winning, Rizespor a 38% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Rizespor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Fatih Karagümrük's attack at 0.81x the league average against Rizespor's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rizespor's attack (1.13x) against Fatih Karagümrük's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from Fatih Karagümrük's last 27 games and Rizespor's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
29%
3.50
33%
3.02
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
2.41
1.31
Rizespor xG
3.50
29%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
8%
12.92
13%
7.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 11.7 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.31 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fatih Karagümrük come into this having played 27 games, going 4W 5D 18L for 0.63 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-L.
On the other side, Rizespor sit at 1.22 PPG from 27 outings (8W 9D 10L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-L across their last five.
Rizespor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Fatih Karagümrük — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Fatih Karagümrük's home form reads 3W 3D 7L across their last 13 home games, a 0.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Rizespor have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 13 away games (2W 7D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.37 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 27 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
Fatih Karagümrük (Home) vs Rizespor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
❓ Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor Form FAQs
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 4W 5D 18L in their last 27 games (0.63 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 8W 9D 10L in their last 27 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Rizespor away?
Rizespor's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 0.92 PPG; Rizespor away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Rizespor, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 5 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fatih Karagümrük won Fatih Karagümrük 4-0 Rizespor on 28 Jan 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 3W 0D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Rizespor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Fatih Karagümrük
1
Draws
2
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Rizespor?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Fatih Karagümrük have won 3, Rizespor have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Rizespor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 April 2026: Fatih Karagümrük 2-1 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Rizespor?
Fatih Karagümrük have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fatih Karagümrük 31%, Rizespor 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 23% (Fatih Karagümrük) and 54% (Rizespor).
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Fatih Karagümrük have failed to score in 46% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fatih Karagümrük and Rizespor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent matches and 69% of Rizespor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Fatih Karagümrük and Rizespor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent games and 54% of Rizespor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Rizespor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent matches and 77% of Rizespor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fatih Karagümrük defy the odds to beat Rizespor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fatih Karagümrük beat Rizespor 2-1 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 28, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.11 xG and Rizespor 1.31 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.81 / defence 1.00 against Rizespor attack 1.13 / defence 1.02, drawn from 27/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 29% | Draw 33% | Rizespor 38%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Fatih Karagümrük win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 44%, Rizespor 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Rizespor's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rizespor arrived the stronger side — 1.22 PPG against 0.63. Form was overturned, with Fatih Karagümrük winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.