Fatih Karagümrük 2-0 Pendikspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 69%, yet in-form Pendikspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pendikspor make the trip to Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı to face Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 February 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fatih Karagümrük's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fatih Karagümrük at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Fatih Karagümrük are significantly better at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı than their overall form suggests.
Pendikspor (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pendikspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pendikspor away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Pendikspor arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Fatih Karagümrük, 0 for Pendikspor and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Fatih Karagümrük — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Pendikspor — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 42% versus Pendikspor 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 46% | Pendikspor 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 2.46 xG and Pendikspor 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.196 / defence 0.868 | Pendikspor attack 0.924 / defence 1.387. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.187. Pendikspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.387 — this is suppressing Fatih Karagümrük's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Fatih Karagümrük games / 24 Pendikspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 69% | Draw 20% | Pendikspor 11%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 1.45 | Draw 5.00 | Pendikspor 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Fatih Karagümrük (69%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fatih Karagümrük at 69% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Pendikspor (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.41 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fatih Karagümrük 30% | Pendikspor 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 69% | Draw 20% | Pendikspor 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 58% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 2.46 / Pendikspor 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.196 / def 0.868 | Pendikspor attack 0.924 / def 1.387 | league avg home 1.482 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.46
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Pendikspor xG
58%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor?
Fatih Karagümrük 2 - 0 Pendikspor.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 69% chance of winning, Pendikspor a 11% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Pendikspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Pendikspor?
Record (1 meetings): Fatih Karagümrük 0W | Draws 1 | Pendikspor 0W.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Pendikspor in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Pendikspor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Fatih Karagümrük's attack rating (1.20) and Pendikspor's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 2.46 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pendikspor's attack (0.92x) against Fatih Karagümrük's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 60/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-1 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
69%
1.45
20%
4.96
11%
9.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
3 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.46
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
3.41
0.95
Pendikspor xG
1.45
69%
Home win
4.96
20%
Draw
9.04
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
9%
11.68
Win to Nil
27%
3.77
1%
105.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.1 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Pendikspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.46 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 0.95 for Pendikspor, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 24 outings, Fatih Karagümrük have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 6W 6D 12L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pendikspor's form line: 6W 8D 10L from 24 games, 1.08 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W. The sample for Pendikspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Fatih Karagümrük against 1.08 for Pendikspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Fatih Karagümrük have posted 1.58 PPG from 12 outings (5W 4D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Fatih Karagümrük are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Pendikspor have gone 2W 5D 5L from 12 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fatih Karagümrük come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Pendikspor are on 1.29 scored and 1.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pendikspor in 71%.
Last 24 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
Pendikspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Pendikspor in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 6W 6D 12L in their last 24 games (1.00 PPG), while Pendikspor have gone 6W 8D 10L in their last 24 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Pendikspor away?
Fatih Karagümrük's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 1.58 PPG; Pendikspor away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Fatih Karagümrük
1
Draws
0
Pendikspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Pendikspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 1, Pendikspor have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Pendikspor last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2024, when Fatih Karagümrük 2-0 Pendikspor.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Pendikspor?
Fatih Karagümrük have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Pendikspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fatih Karagümrük 33%, Pendikspor 83% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Fatih Karagümrük) and 58% (Pendikspor).
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Fatih Karagümrük have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Pendikspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Pendikspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Fatih Karagümrük's games and 83% of Pendikspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent games and 58% of Pendikspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Pendikspor tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Pendikspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fatih Karagümrük cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Pendikspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fatih Karagümrük beat Pendikspor 2-0 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 25, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 2.46 xG and Pendikspor 0.95 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Pendikspor landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.20 / defence 0.87 against Pendikspor attack 0.92 / defence 1.39, drawn from 60/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 69% | Draw 20% | Pendikspor 11%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 69%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 46%, Pendikspor 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Pendikspor's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fatih Karagümrük 1.00 PPG, Pendikspor 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fatih Karagümrük win broke the near-deadlock. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Pendikspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.