Fatih Karagümrük 0-0 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fatih Karagümrük at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fatih Karagümrük vs Hatayspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hatayspor make the trip to Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı to face Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Monday 18 September 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Fatih Karagümrük (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Fatih Karagümrük have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fatih Karagümrük's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hatayspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Hatayspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Hatayspor have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Fatih Karagümrük's 1.40 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Hatayspor's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fatih Karagümrük lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2023, ended 3–0 with Fatih Karagümrük winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Fatih Karagümrük goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Hatayspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 62% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 65% versus Hatayspor 30%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Fatih Karagümrük 65% | Hatayspor 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.44 xG and Hatayspor 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.976 / defence 0.953 | Hatayspor attack 0.955 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.378. Data: 40 Fatih Karagümrük games / 40 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 38% | Draw 33% | Hatayspor 29%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 2.63 | Draw 3.03 | Hatayspor 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fatih Karagümrük at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Fatih Karagümrük 60% | Hatayspor 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Monday 18 Sep 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 38% | Draw 33% | Hatayspor 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 58% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.44 / Hatayspor 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.976 / def 0.953 | Hatayspor attack 0.955 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Hatayspor xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Hatayspor kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Hatayspor kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 18 September 2023 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Hatayspor?
Fatih Karagümrük 0 - 0 Hatayspor.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Hatayspor part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 38% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 29% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Hatayspor?
Record (4 meetings): Fatih Karagümrük 2W | Draws 1 | Hatayspor 1W.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Hatayspor in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Hatayspor (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Fatih Karagümrük's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Hatayspor's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — Hatayspor's attack (0.95x) against Fatih Karagümrük's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
38%
2.64
33%
3.06
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
2.69
1.25
Hatayspor xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
11%
9.26
7%
14.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.2 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.25 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Hatayspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 40 outings, Fatih Karagümrük have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 14W 13D 13L record — W-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hatayspor's form line: 7W 8D 25L from 40 games, 0.72 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Hatayspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Fatih Karagümrük are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hatayspor.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Fatih Karagümrük have posted 1.35 PPG from 20 outings (7W 6D 7L).
On the road, Hatayspor have gone 3W 2D 15L from 20 away games — 0.55 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fatih Karagümrük come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 0.68 scored and 2.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fatih Karagümrük have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Hatayspor in 30%.
Last 40 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Early Season
Hatayspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 14W 13D 13L in their last 40 games (1.38 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 7W 8D 25L in their last 40 (0.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Hatayspor away?
Fatih Karagümrük's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 1.35 PPG; Hatayspor away: 0.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hatayspor won 3-0 on 12 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Fatih Karagümrük
2
Draws
2
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Hatayspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 2, Hatayspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2024, when Hatayspor 3-1 Fatih Karagümrük.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fatih Karagümrük 70%, Hatayspor 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Fatih Karagümrük and 75% for Hatayspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hatayspor in 70%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Hatayspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 70% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent matches and 25% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Fatih Karagümrük's matches and 75% of Hatayspor's.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Fatih Karagümrük's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fatih Karagümrük and Hatayspor finished level at 0-0 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 5, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.44 xG and Hatayspor 1.25 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Hatayspor landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.98 / defence 0.95 against Hatayspor attack 0.95 / defence 1.05, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 38% | Draw 33% | Hatayspor 29%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 65%, Hatayspor 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Hatayspor's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 62% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fatih Karagümrük arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.72. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line. Hatayspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.