Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 Gençlerbirliği S.K. – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Fatih Karagümrük face Gençlerbirliği S.K..

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Full Analysis

Ataturk Olimpiyat plays host to Fatih Karagümrük versus Gençlerbirliği S.K. in Süper Lig (matchday 32). Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026 at 19:00 UK time.

Current Form

Fatih Karagümrük's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Fatih Karagümrük's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Fatih Karagümrük are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Gençlerbirliği S.K. (all games): 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

Gençlerbirliği S.K. away from home: 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Fatih Karagümrük, 0.60 for Gençlerbirliği S.K. — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Gençlerbirliği S.K. edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 7 Dec 2025, ended Fatih Karagümrük 0–3 Gençlerbirliği S.K. — a Gençlerbirliği S.K. win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Fatih Karagümrük half-time and goal-timing data (last 31 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

Gençlerbirliği S.K. half-time and goal-timing data (last 31 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 48% versus Gençlerbirliği S.K. 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 48% | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.25 xG and Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.794 / defence 1.082 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 0.591 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.128. Fatih Karagümrük's attack rating of 0.794 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.25. Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s attack rating of 0.591 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.72. Data: built from Fatih Karagümrük's last 31 games and Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s last 31.

Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 46% | Draw 36% | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 18%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 2.20 | Draw 2.76 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 5.48. Fatih Karagümrük hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Fatih Karagümrük at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 1.97 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 69% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Fatih Karagümrük's last 10 home games and Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fatih Karagümrük 50% (last 10 home games) | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 30% (last 10 away games).

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