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Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fatih Karagümrük vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Ataturk Olimpiyat plays host to Fatih Karagümrük versus Gençlerbirliği S.K. in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Current Form

Fatih Karagümrük's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Fatih Karagümrük's home record at Ataturk Olimpiyat: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Fatih Karagümrük are significantly better at Ataturk Olimpiyat than their overall form suggests.

Gençlerbirliği S.K. (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

Gençlerbirliği S.K. away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Fatih Karagümrük, 0.60 for Gençlerbirliği S.K. — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fatih Karagümrük lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2025, ended 0–3 with Gençlerbirliği S.K. winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Fatih Karagümrük half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

Gençlerbirliği S.K. half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 48% versus Gençlerbirliği S.K. 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 48% | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.25 xG and Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.794 / defence 1.082 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 0.591 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.128. Fatih Karagümrük's attack strength of 0.794 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 31 Fatih Karagümrük games / 31 Gençlerbirliği S.K. games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 46% | Draw 36% | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 18%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 2.17 | Draw 2.78 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 5.56. Fatih Karagümrük hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Fatih Karagümrük at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 1.97 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fatih Karagümrük 50% | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 30% BTTS from recent games.

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