Fatih Karagümrük 2-3 Galatasaray – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Galatasaray (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fatih Karagümrük face Galatasaray.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Galatasaray make the trip to Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı to face Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Sunday 12 May 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fatih Karagümrük have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Fatih Karagümrük at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Fatih Karagümrük are significantly better at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı than their overall form suggests.
Galatasaray's overall Süper Lig record this term: 10W 0D 0L from 10 games (3.00 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Galatasaray have posted 8W 2D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Galatasaray are 2.00 PPG clear of Fatih Karagümrük in recent Süper Lig fixtures (3.00 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Galatasaray, who have claimed 3 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2023, ended 0–1 with Galatasaray winning.
It is worth noting that Galatasaray have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Fatih Karagümrük goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Galatasaray goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 61% versus Galatasaray 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 59% | Galatasaray 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.06 xG and Galatasaray 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.179 / defence 0.893 | Galatasaray attack 1.610 / defence 0.580. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.234. Galatasaray's defence strength of 0.580 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Galatasaray have an above-average attack strength of 1.610 — the away xG of 1.77 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 71 Fatih Karagümrük games / 71 Galatasaray games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 21% | Draw 27% | Galatasaray 52%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 4.76 | Draw 3.70 | Galatasaray 1.92. Galatasaray hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Galatasaray are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Galatasaray if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Fatih Karagümrük 60% | Galatasaray 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 21% | Draw 27% | Galatasaray 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.06 / Galatasaray 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.179 / def 0.893 | Galatasaray attack 1.610 / def 0.580 | league avg home 1.553 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Galatasaray (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Galatasaray xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray?
Fatih Karagümrük 2 - 3 Galatasaray.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 21% chance of winning, Galatasaray a 52% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Galatasaray the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Galatasaray will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Galatasaray?
Record (5 meetings): Fatih Karagümrük 0W | Draws 2 | Galatasaray 3W.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Galatasaray in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Galatasaray (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fatih Karagümrük's attack at 1.18x the league average against Galatasaray's defence at 0.58x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Galatasaray's attack (1.61x) against Fatih Karagümrük's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.77.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Galatasaray Win
21%
4.79
27%
3.74
52%
1.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
2.84
1.77
Galatasaray xG
4.79
21%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
1.91
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
17%
5.90
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
4%
28.24
18%
5.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 10.4 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Galatasaray expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.77 for Galatasaray, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fatih Karagümrük's recent record stands at 22W 22D 27L from 71 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-D in the last five.
Galatasaray, meanwhile, have gone 59W 7D 5L across 71 games — 2.59 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Galatasaray by 1.35 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fatih Karagümrük heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fatih Karagümrük have managed 14W 11D 10L from 35 games — 1.51 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Galatasaray's away record stands at 26W 5D 4L across 35 trips, a 2.37 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Galatasaray come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Galatasaray are on 2.38 scored and 0.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fatih Karagümrük have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Galatasaray in 51% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Current Season
Galatasaray
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Galatasaray in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 22W 22D 27L in their last 71 games (1.24 PPG), while Galatasaray have gone 59W 7D 5L in their last 71 (2.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Galatasaray away?
Galatasaray's away record (2.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 1.51 PPG; Galatasaray away: 2.37 PPG.
Have Fatih Karagümrük or Galatasaray been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fatih Karagümrük have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Galatasaray in 51%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Galatasaray have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Galatasaray won 3-0 on 15 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Galatasaray — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Fatih Karagümrük
2
Draws
6
Galatasaray
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Galatasaray?
From 8 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 0, Galatasaray have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Galatasaray last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Fatih Karagümrük 1-3 Galatasaray.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Galatasaray?
Galatasaray have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Galatasaray are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fatih Karagümrük 60%, Galatasaray 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Fatih Karagümrük) and 57% (Galatasaray). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Galatasaray in 66%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Galatasaray away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Galatasaray?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent matches and 34% of Galatasaray's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Galatasaray usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Fatih Karagümrük's matches and 57% of Galatasaray's.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Galatasaray tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Galatasaray in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Galatasaray edge out Fatih Karagümrük 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Galatasaray beat Fatih Karagümrük 2-3 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 36, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.06 xG and Galatasaray 1.77 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Galatasaray outscored their 1.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.18 / defence 0.89 against Galatasaray attack 1.61 / defence 0.58, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 21% | Draw 27% | Galatasaray 52%, with Galatasaray to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 59%, Galatasaray 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Galatasaray's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Galatasaray arrived the stronger side — 2.59 PPG against 1.24. Form held, and they took the win. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Galatasaray (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.