Fatih Karagümrük 0-1 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Beşiktaş (46%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Fatih Karagümrük face Beşiktaş.

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Full Analysis

Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı plays host to Fatih Karagümrük versus Beşiktaş in Süper Lig (matchday 1). Kick-off: Monday 14 August 2023 at 20:00 UK time.

Current Form

Fatih Karagümrük's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Fatih Karagümrük at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Beşiktaş (all games): 8W 2D 0L across their last 10 — 2.60 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Beşiktaş have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

On a straight form reading, Beşiktaş are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.60 vs 1.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H History

Across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Beşiktaş have the stronger record — 3 wins to Fatih Karagümrük's 0, with 1 draw.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 31 Jan 2023, ended Fatih Karagümrük 1–1 Beşiktaş — a draw.

Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

Trading Data

Fatih Karagümrük goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.

Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 59% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 80%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fatih Karagümrük 69% and Beşiktaş 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Fatih Karagümrük 72% | Beşiktaş 64%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Fatih Karagümrük surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Beşiktaş have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 80% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Beşiktaş surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Fatih Karagümrük recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 46% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.52 xG and Beşiktaş 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.156 / defence 1.002 | Beşiktaş attack 1.282 / defence 0.841. League average goals — home 1.566 / away 1.477. Beşiktaş have an above-average attack rating of 1.282, which lifts their away xG to 1.90. Data: built from Fatih Karagümrük's last 36 games and Beşiktaş's last 36. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 30% | Draw 24% | Beşiktaş 46%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 3.29 | Draw 4.20 | Beşiktaş 2.18. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (1.52 / 1.90) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.42 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Fatih Karagümrük's last 10 home games and Beşiktaş's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fatih Karagümrük 70% (last 10 home games) | Beşiktaş 50% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Fatih Karagümrük 36 games, Beşiktaş 36) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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