Fatih Karagümrük 4-1 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fatih Karagümrük and Antalyaspor meet at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Monday 29 April 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Fatih Karagümrük (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Fatih Karagümrük's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Fatih Karagümrük are significantly better at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı than their overall form suggests.
Antalyaspor have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Antalyaspor have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Fatih Karagümrük against 1.10 for Antalyaspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Antalyaspor, who have claimed 4 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2023, ended 1–2 with Antalyaspor winning.
It is worth noting that Antalyaspor have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Fatih Karagümrük — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Antalyaspor — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 59% versus Antalyaspor 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 58% | Antalyaspor 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.62 xG and Antalyaspor 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.049 / defence 0.877 | Antalyaspor attack 0.879 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.493 / away 1.232. Data: 69 Fatih Karagümrük games / 69 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 52% | Draw 28% | Antalyaspor 20%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Antalyaspor 5.00. Fatih Karagümrük hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fatih Karagümrük are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Fatih Karagümrük 50% | Antalyaspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Monday 29 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 52% | Draw 28% | Antalyaspor 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.62 / Antalyaspor 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.049 / def 0.877 | Antalyaspor attack 0.879 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.493 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Antalyaspor xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 29 April 2024 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor?
Fatih Karagümrük 4 - 1 Antalyaspor.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 52% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Antalyaspor?
Record (5 meetings): Fatih Karagümrük 0W | Draws 1 | Antalyaspor 4W.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Antalyaspor in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Antalyaspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Fatih Karagümrük's attack rating (1.05) and Antalyaspor's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Antalyaspor's attack (0.88x) against Fatih Karagümrük's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
52%
1.94
28%
3.56
20%
4.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
2.58
0.95
Antalyaspor xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
4.90
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
20%
5.02
4%
24.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 11.8 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 0.95 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 69 outings, Fatih Karagümrük have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 21W 21D 27L record — L-D-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Antalyaspor's form line: 22W 20D 27L from 69 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Fatih Karagümrük against 1.25 for Antalyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Fatih Karagümrük have posted 1.47 PPG from 34 outings (13W 11D 10L).
On the road, Antalyaspor have gone 7W 9D 18L from 34 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fatih Karagümrük come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.22 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Current Season
Antalyaspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 21W 21D 27L in their last 69 games (1.22 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 22W 20D 27L in their last 69 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Antalyaspor away?
Fatih Karagümrük's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 1.47 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Fatih Karagümrük have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antalyaspor won 3-0 on 13 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Antalyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Fatih Karagümrük
1
Draws
4
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Antalyaspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 3, Antalyaspor have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Antalyaspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fatih Karagümrük 59%, Antalyaspor 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Fatih Karagümrük) and 38% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Antalyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent matches and 47% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent games and 38% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fatih Karagümrük run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Antalyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fatih Karagümrük beat Antalyaspor 4-1 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 34, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.62 xG and Antalyaspor 0.95 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.05 / defence 0.88 against Antalyaspor attack 0.88 / defence 1.04, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 52% | Draw 28% | Antalyaspor 20%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 58%, Antalyaspor 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fatih Karagümrük 1.22 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fatih Karagümrük win broke the near-deadlock. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.91 average — above their attacking norm. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.