Fatih Karagümrük 2-1 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Fatih Karagümrük take on Alanyaspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Alanyaspor travel to Ataturk Olimpiyat to take on Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig (matchday 34). The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 May 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Fatih Karagümrük have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Alanyaspor — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 0W 8D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fatih Karagümrük 1.40 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Alanyaspor have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Fatih Karagümrük.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.9 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 21 Dec 2025, ended Fatih Karagümrük 0–2 Alanyaspor — a Alanyaspor win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Alanyaspor have won 4 of 7 H2H matches, and at 2.9 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Fatih Karagümrük trading profile (last 33 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Alanyaspor trading profile (last 33 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 46% versus Alanyaspor 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 46% | Alanyaspor 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Fatih Karagümrük surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Alanyaspor have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.03 xG and Alanyaspor 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.767 / defence 1.026 | Alanyaspor attack 0.842 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.135. Fatih Karagümrük's attack rating of 0.767 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Data: built from Fatih Karagümrük's last 33 games and Alanyaspor's last 69.
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 33% | Draw 37% | Alanyaspor 30%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 3.06 | Draw 2.67 | Alanyaspor 3.35. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 67% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Fatih Karagümrük's last 10 home games and Alanyaspor's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Fatih Karagümrük 40% (last 10 home games) | Alanyaspor 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 34 | Venue: Ataturk Olimpiyat • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 33% | Draw 37% | Alanyaspor 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.03 / Alanyaspor 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.767 / def 1.026 | Alanyaspor attack 0.842 / def 0.895 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Alanyaspor xG
44%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor FAQs
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 16 May 2026 at Ataturk Olimpiyat.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor?
Fatih Karagümrük 2 - 1 Alanyaspor.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Ataturk Olimpiyat.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 34) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 33% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 30% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Alanyaspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Fatih Karagümrük's attack at 0.77x the league average against Alanyaspor's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Fatih Karagümrük's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Fatih Karagümrük's last 33 games and Alanyaspor's last 69 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.06
37%
2.67
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
2.01
0.98
Alanyaspor xG
3.06
33%
Home win
2.67
37%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
36%
2.82
Win to Nil
12%
8.15
11%
9.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 13.1 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 0.98 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fatih Karagümrük come into this having played 33 games, going 7W 6D 20L for 0.82 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-W.
On the other side, Alanyaspor sit at 1.12 PPG from 33 outings (7W 16D 10L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fatih Karagümrük on 0.82 PPG, Alanyaspor on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Fatih Karagümrük's home form reads 5W 3D 8L across their last 16 home games, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Alanyaspor have taken 0.88 points per game from their last 16 away games (1W 11D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.21 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alanyaspor in 61%.
Last 33 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Current Season
Alanyaspor
Current Season
Fatih Karagümrük (Home) vs Alanyaspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fatih Karagümrük
Current Season
Alanyaspor
Current Season
❓ Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor Form FAQs
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 7W 6D 20L in their last 33 games (0.82 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 7W 16D 10L in their last 33 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Alanyaspor away?
Fatih Karagümrük's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 1.12 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Fatih Karagümrük or Alanyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fatih Karagümrük have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Alanyaspor in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from December 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 16 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Fatih Karagümrük's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Fatih Karagümrük
3
Draws
4
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Alanyaspor?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Fatih Karagümrük have won 1, Alanyaspor have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Alanyaspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 May 2026: Fatih Karagümrük 2-1 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Alanyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 80% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fatih Karagümrük 38%, Alanyaspor 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Fatih Karagümrük) and 44% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Fatih Karagümrük have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fatih Karagümrük and Alanyaspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 38% of Fatih Karagümrük's games and 75% of Alanyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Fatih Karagümrük and Alanyaspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent games and 44% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Alanyaspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent matches and 69% of Alanyaspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fatih Karagümrük edge out Alanyaspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fatih Karagümrük beat Alanyaspor 2-1 at Ataturk Olimpiyat, Regular Season - 34, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.03 xG and Alanyaspor 0.98 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.77 / defence 1.03 against Alanyaspor attack 0.84 / defence 0.90, drawn from 33/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 33% | Draw 37% | Alanyaspor 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Fatih Karagümrük win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 46%, Alanyaspor 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fatih Karagümrük 0.82 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fatih Karagümrük win broke the near-deadlock. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.