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Poisson model rates Eyüpspor at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eyüpspor vs Çorum FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Eyüpspor host Çorum FK at in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 February 2027 at 18:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Eyüpspor — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Eyüpspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Eyüpspor's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.81 xG and Çorum FK 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.990 / defence 0.953 | Çorum FK attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 34 Eyüpspor games / 0 Çorum FK games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 56% | Draw 27% | Çorum FK 17%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 1.79 | Draw 3.70 | Çorum FK 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Eyüpspor (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Eyüpspor as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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