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Poisson rates Eyüpspor at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eyüpspor vs Sivasspor encounter.

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Full Analysis

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu plays host to Eyüpspor versus Sivasspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Friday 31 January 2025 at 17:00 UTC.

Current Form

Eyüpspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Eyüpspor have gone 6W 2D 1L this season (9 games, 2.22 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.

Sivasspor (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sivasspor away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.

Form favours the hosts. Eyüpspor's 2.00 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Sivasspor's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Eyüpspor 1W, Sivasspor 0W, 0D.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 1–0 with Eyüpspor winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Eyüpspor half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

Sivasspor half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 20% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 45% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 55% versus Sivasspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 50% | Sivasspor 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 2.35 xG and Sivasspor 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 1.072 / defence 0.815 | Sivasspor attack 0.824 / defence 1.282. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.242. Sivasspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.282 — this is suppressing Eyüpspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Eyüpspor games / 58 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 70% | Draw 20% | Sivasspor 10%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 1.43 | Draw 5.00 | Sivasspor 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Eyüpspor (70%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Eyüpspor as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Eyüpspor 44% | Sivasspor 50%.

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