Eyüpspor vs Rizespor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eyüpspor at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eyüpspor vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Eyüpspor host Rizespor at in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 September 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Eyüpspor — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Eyüpspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at , Eyüpspor have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rizespor stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Rizespor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rizespor's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Eyüpspor 1.40 PPG, Rizespor 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Eyüpspor have won 1, Rizespor 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2026, ended 4–0 with Eyüpspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Eyüpspor in-play and half-time data (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Rizespor in-play and half-time data (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 43% versus Rizespor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 46% | Rizespor 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.28 xG and Rizespor 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.948 / defence 0.932 | Rizespor attack 1.018 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.243. Data: 37 Eyüpspor games / 37 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 39% | Draw 27% | Rizespor 34%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Rizespor 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Eyüpspor as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eyüpspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Eyüpspor 40% | Rizespor 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Sep 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 39% | Draw 27% | Rizespor 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Eyüpspor 1.28 / Rizespor 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 0.948 / def 0.932 | Rizespor attack 1.018 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Eyüpspor (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Rizespor xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eyüpspor vs Rizespor kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Rizespor is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 12 September 2026.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Rizespor part of?
Eyüpspor vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 39% chance of winning, Rizespor a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Eyüpspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Eyüpspor and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Eyüpspor vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Rizespor?
Record (4 meetings): Eyüpspor 1W | Draws 0 | Rizespor 3W.
What form are Eyüpspor and Rizespor in?
Eyüpspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Rizespor (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Eyüpspor's attack rating (0.95) and Rizespor's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rizespor's attack versus Eyüpspor's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eyüpspor Win
39%
2.58
27%
3.67
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
2.46
1.18
Rizespor xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
12%
8.39
9%
10.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.1 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.9 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 1.18 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Rizespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 37 outings, Eyüpspor have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 9W 9D 19L record — W-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Eyüpspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rizespor's form line: 12W 11D 14L from 37 games, 1.27 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Rizespor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eyüpspor on 0.97 PPG, Rizespor on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Eyüpspor have posted 1.16 PPG from 19 outings (6W 4D 9L).
On the road, Rizespor have gone 4W 8D 7L from 19 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Eyüpspor are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.32 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Early Season
Rizespor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eyüpspor and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 9W 9D 19L in their last 37 games (0.97 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 12W 11D 14L in their last 37 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Rizespor away?
Eyüpspor's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 1.16 PPG; Rizespor away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 May 2026, when Eyüpspor won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eyüpspor's record when hosting Rizespor specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Eyüpspor
0
Draws
3
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Rizespor?
From 4 meetings on record, Eyüpspor have won 1, Rizespor have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Eyüpspor 4-0 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Eyüpspor and Rizespor?
Rizespor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eyüpspor see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 42%, Rizespor 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Eyüpspor) and 58% (Rizespor).
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor have failed to score in 37% of games; Rizespor in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eyüpspor play Rizespor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 63% of Rizespor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eyüpspor vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Eyüpspor's recent games and 58% of Rizespor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eyüpspor and Rizespor tend to score early?
Eyüpspor have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.