Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eyüpspor at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Konyaspor travel to to take on Eyüpspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 May 2027, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Eyüpspor — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Eyüpspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Eyüpspor at this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Konyaspor stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Konyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Eyüpspor 1.40 PPG, Konyaspor 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Eyüpspor, 2 for Konyaspor and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Eyüpspor in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 42% versus Konyaspor 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 47% | Konyaspor 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.76 xG and Konyaspor 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.937 / defence 0.907 | Konyaspor attack 0.906 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.230. Konyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.213 — this is suppressing Eyüpspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Eyüpspor games / 38 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 55% | Draw 23% | Konyaspor 22%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Konyaspor 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Eyüpspor (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Eyüpspor at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Eyüpspor 40% | Konyaspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 16 May 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 55% | Draw 23% | Konyaspor 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Eyüpspor 1.76 / Konyaspor 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 0.937 / def 0.907 | Konyaspor attack 0.906 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Eyüpspor (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Konyaspor xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 16 May 2027.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor part of?
Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 55% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Eyüpspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Eyüpspor and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Konyaspor?
Record (4 meetings): Eyüpspor 1W | Draws 1 | Konyaspor 2W.
What form are Eyüpspor and Konyaspor in?
Eyüpspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Konyaspor (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Eyüpspor's attack rating (0.94) and Konyaspor's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Konyaspor's attack versus Eyüpspor's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eyüpspor Win
55%
1.82
23%
4.26
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
2.77
1.01
Konyaspor xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
17%
5.80
Win to Nil
20%
5.00
4%
26.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.2 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 1.01 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eyüpspor come into this having played 38 games, going 9W 9D 20L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Eyüpspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Konyaspor sit at 1.05 PPG from 38 outings (10W 10D 18L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Konyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eyüpspor on 0.95 PPG, Konyaspor on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Eyüpspor's home form reads 6W 4D 9L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.16 PPG return.
Away from home, Konyaspor have taken 0.84 points per game from 19 outings (4W 4D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Eyüpspor are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.21 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor in 63%.
Last 38 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Early Season
Konyaspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eyüpspor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 9W 9D 20L in their last 38 games (0.95 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 10W 10D 18L in their last 38 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Konyaspor away?
Eyüpspor's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 1.16 PPG; Konyaspor away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Aug 2025, when Konyaspor won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eyüpspor's record when hosting Konyaspor specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Eyüpspor
1
Draws
2
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Konyaspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Eyüpspor have won 1, Konyaspor have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2026, when Konyaspor 1-1 Eyüpspor.
Who has won more matches between Eyüpspor and Konyaspor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eyüpspor see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 42%, Konyaspor 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Eyüpspor) and 63% (Konyaspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 16% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eyüpspor play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of Eyüpspor's games and 74% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Eyüpspor's matches and 63% of Konyaspor's.
Do Eyüpspor and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Eyüpspor have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.