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Poisson model rates Eyüpspor at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Konyaspor travel to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu to take on Eyüpspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 March 2025, 13:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Eyüpspor — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Eyüpspor at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Eyüpspor are significantly better at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Konyaspor stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Konyaspor have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Eyüpspor 1.40 PPG, Konyaspor 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Eyüpspor, 1 for Konyaspor and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2024, ended 1–2 with Konyaspor winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Eyüpspor in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eyüpspor 56% and Konyaspor 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 48% | Konyaspor 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.53 xG and Konyaspor 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.929 / defence 0.999 | Konyaspor attack 0.888 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.646 / away 1.178. Data: 25 Eyüpspor games / 63 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 48% | Draw 26% | Konyaspor 25%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Konyaspor 4.00. Eyüpspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Eyüpspor at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eyüpspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Eyüpspor 50% | Konyaspor 60% BTTS from recent games.

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