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Poisson model rates Eyüpspor at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eyüpspor vs Kocaelispor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 25 as Eyüpspor welcome Kocaelispor to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Monday 9 March 2026 at 13:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Eyüpspor have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Eyüpspor have posted 2W 4D 4L at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Kocaelispor — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kocaelispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Kocaelispor have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Eyüpspor 1.00 PPG, Kocaelispor 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Eyüpspor, 1 for Kocaelispor and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 0–1 with Kocaelispor winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Eyüpspor in-play and half-time data (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.

Kocaelispor in-play and half-time data (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 36% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 46% versus Kocaelispor 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Eyüpspor 42% | Kocaelispor 29%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.27 xG and Kocaelispor 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.868 / defence 1.056 | Kocaelispor attack 0.709 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.226. Data: 60 Eyüpspor games / 24 Kocaelispor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 41% | Draw 36% | Kocaelispor 23%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 2.44 | Draw 2.78 | Kocaelispor 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Eyüpspor as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eyüpspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Eyüpspor 40% | Kocaelispor 50% BTTS from recent games.

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