Eyüpspor 1-1 Kayserispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Eyüpspor at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eyüpspor vs Kayserispor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 24 as Eyüpspor welcome Kayserispor to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 February 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Eyüpspor — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eyüpspor's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Eyüpspor are significantly better at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kayserispor have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kayserispor's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
On current form, Eyüpspor have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Eyüpspor have won 0, Kayserispor 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Eyüpspor in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Kayserispor in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 50% versus Kayserispor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 46% | Kayserispor 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 2.01 xG and Kayserispor 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.995 / defence 0.788 | Kayserispor attack 0.892 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.211. Kayserispor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing Eyüpspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Eyüpspor's defence rating of 0.788 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 22 Eyüpspor games / 59 Kayserispor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 63% | Draw 22% | Kayserispor 14%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 1.59 | Draw 4.55 | Kayserispor 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Eyüpspor (63%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Eyüpspor at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Eyüpspor 40% | Kayserispor 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Kayserispor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Feb 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 63% | Draw 22% | Kayserispor 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 51% | xG Eyüpspor 2.01 / Kayserispor 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 0.995 / def 0.788 | Kayserispor attack 0.892 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Eyüpspor (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Kayserispor xG
51%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eyüpspor vs Kayserispor kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Kayserispor kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 16 February 2025 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Eyüpspor vs Kayserispor?
Eyüpspor 1 - 1 Kayserispor.
Where is Eyüpspor vs Kayserispor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Kayserispor part of?
Eyüpspor vs Kayserispor is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Kayserispor?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 63% chance of winning, Kayserispor a 14% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Eyüpspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Kayserispor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Eyüpspor and Kayserispor will score (BTTS).
Will Eyüpspor vs Kayserispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Kayserispor?
Record (1 meetings): Eyüpspor 0W | Draws 1 | Kayserispor 0W.
What form are Eyüpspor and Kayserispor in?
Eyüpspor (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Kayserispor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Eyüpspor's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Kayserispor's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.01. The same calculation in reverse, Kayserispor's attack versus Eyüpspor's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eyüpspor Win
63%
1.58
22%
4.46
14%
7.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
2.86
0.85
Kayserispor xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
7.10
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
13%
7.47
Win to Nil
27%
3.69
2%
53.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Kayserispor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Kayserispor expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 0.85 for Kayserispor, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Kayserispor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 22 outings, Eyüpspor have picked up 1.77 PPG on a 11W 6D 5L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Eyüpspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kayserispor's form line: 4W 8D 10L from 22 games, 0.91 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-W. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Eyüpspor are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kayserispor.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Eyüpspor have posted 2.30 PPG from 10 outings (7W 2D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.77 PPG overall — Eyüpspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Kayserispor have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eyüpspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Eyüpspor are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Kayserispor are on 1.05 scored and 1.95 conceded.
Defensively: Eyüpspor have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Blended
Kayserispor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eyüpspor and Kayserispor in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 11W 6D 5L in their last 22 games (1.77 PPG), while Kayserispor have gone 4W 8D 10L in their last 22 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Kayserispor away?
Eyüpspor's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 2.30 PPG; Kayserispor away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Eyüpspor or Kayserispor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eyüpspor have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Kayserispor in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Eyüpspor and Kayserispor runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Eyüpspor's record when hosting Kayserispor specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Eyüpspor
4
Draws
0
Kayserispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Kayserispor?
From 4 meetings on record, Eyüpspor have won 0, Kayserispor have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Kayserispor last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Kayserispor 1-1 Eyüpspor.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 40%, Kayserispor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Eyüpspor) and 50% (Kayserispor).
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Kayserispor in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Kayserispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eyüpspor play Kayserispor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 50% of Kayserispor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eyüpspor vs Kayserispor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Eyüpspor's recent games and 50% of Kayserispor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eyüpspor and Kayserispor tend to score early?
Eyüpspor have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Kayserispor in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eyüpspor and Kayserispor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 24, as Eyüpspor and Kayserispor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 2.01 xG and Kayserispor 0.85 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Eyüpspor fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 0.99 / defence 0.79 against Kayserispor attack 0.89 / defence 1.23, drawn from 22/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 63% | Draw 22% | Kayserispor 14%, with Eyüpspor to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 46%, Kayserispor 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eyüpspor's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Kayserispor's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Eyüpspor arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward. Kayserispor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.