Eyüpspor 0-0 Göztepe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Göztepe at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eyüpspor vs Göztepe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Göztepe make the trip to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu to face Eyüpspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 September 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Eyüpspor have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Eyüpspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Eyüpspor's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 games at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Eyüpspor are significantly better at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Göztepe's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Göztepe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Göztepe's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Göztepe are 0.90 PPG clear of Eyüpspor in recent Süper Lig fixtures (1.60 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Eyüpspor have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Göztepe in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Eyüpspor, 0 for Göztepe and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Eyüpspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Göztepe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 55% versus Göztepe 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 55% | Göztepe 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.23 xG and Göztepe 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 1.024 / defence 1.211 | Göztepe attack 1.106 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.229. Data: 42 Eyüpspor games / 42 Göztepe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 27% | Draw 28% | Göztepe 45%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Göztepe 2.22. Göztepe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Göztepe are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Göztepe if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Eyüpspor 70% | Göztepe 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Göztepe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Sep 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 27% | Draw 28% | Göztepe 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Eyüpspor 1.23 / Göztepe 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 1.024 / def 1.211 | Göztepe attack 1.106 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Göztepe (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Göztepe xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eyüpspor vs Göztepe kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Göztepe kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 27 September 2025 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Eyüpspor vs Göztepe?
Eyüpspor 0 - 0 Göztepe.
Where is Eyüpspor vs Göztepe being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Göztepe part of?
Eyüpspor vs Göztepe is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Göztepe?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 27% chance of winning, Göztepe a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Göztepe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Göztepe?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Eyüpspor and Göztepe will score (BTTS).
Will Eyüpspor vs Göztepe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Göztepe?
Record (2 meetings): Eyüpspor 1W | Draws 1 | Göztepe 0W.
What form are Eyüpspor and Göztepe in?
Eyüpspor (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Göztepe (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Eyüpspor's attack at 1.02x the league average against Göztepe's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Göztepe's attack (1.11x) against Eyüpspor's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Göztepe Win
27%
3.77
28%
3.52
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
2.88
1.65
Göztepe xG
3.77
27%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
19%
5.19
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
5%
19.56
13%
7.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 9.3 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.4 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Göztepe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Göztepe expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 1.65 for Göztepe, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Göztepe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Eyüpspor's recent record stands at 16W 9D 17L from 42 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Eyüpspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Göztepe, meanwhile, have gone 16W 14D 12L across 42 games — 1.48 PPG, with D-W-D-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Göztepe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Eyüpspor against 1.48 for Göztepe. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Eyüpspor have managed 11W 3D 7L from 21 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Göztepe's away record stands at 5W 6D 10L across 21 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.48 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Göztepe's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eyüpspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Eyüpspor are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Göztepe are on 1.64 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Early Season
Göztepe
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eyüpspor and Göztepe in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 16W 9D 17L in their last 42 games (1.36 PPG), while Göztepe have gone 16W 14D 12L in their last 42 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Göztepe away?
Eyüpspor's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 1.71 PPG; Göztepe away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Eyüpspor have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Göztepe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Eyüpspor
3
Draws
0
Göztepe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Göztepe?
From 4 meetings on record, Eyüpspor have won 1, Göztepe have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Göztepe last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Göztepe 0-0 Eyüpspor.
Who has won more matches between Eyüpspor and Göztepe?
Eyüpspor have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 57%, Göztepe 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Eyüpspor) and 52% (Göztepe). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Göztepe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eyüpspor play Göztepe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Eyüpspor's games and 67% of Göztepe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eyüpspor vs Göztepe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Eyüpspor's matches and 52% of Göztepe's.
Do Eyüpspor and Göztepe tend to score early?
Eyüpspor have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Göztepe in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Eyüpspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eyüpspor and Göztepe finished level at 0-0 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 7, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.23 xG and Göztepe 1.65 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Eyüpspor fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Göztepe landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 1.02 / defence 1.21 against Göztepe attack 1.11 / defence 0.93, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 27% | Draw 28% | Göztepe 45%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 55%, Göztepe 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eyüpspor's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Göztepe's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eyüpspor 1.36 PPG, Göztepe 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Göztepe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.