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Poisson model rates Eyüpspor at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eyüpspor vs Fatih Karagümrük fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Eyüpspor host Fatih Karagümrük at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Eyüpspor — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Eyüpspor at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Eyüpspor are significantly better at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Fatih Karagümrük have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Eyüpspor at 0.80 PPG versus Fatih Karagümrük's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Trading Patterns

Eyüpspor in-play and half-time data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 67% of games.

Fatih Karagümrük in-play and half-time data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.

The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Eyüpspor 25% | Fatih Karagümrük 42%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Eyüpspor 25% | Fatih Karagümrük 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.39 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.862 / defence 0.971 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.796 / defence 1.251. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.289. Fatih Karagümrük bring a strong defensive rating of 1.251 — this is suppressing Eyüpspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Eyüpspor games / 12 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 44% | Draw 31% | Fatih Karagümrük 25%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Fatih Karagümrük 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Eyüpspor are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eyüpspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Eyüpspor 40% | Fatih Karagümrük 60%.

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