Eyüpspor vs Amed – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eyüpspor at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eyüpspor vs Amed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 27 as Eyüpspor welcome Amed to . Kick-off is set for Sunday 4 April 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Eyüpspor have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Eyüpspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Eyüpspor's home record at : 4W 1D 5L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Amed — All Games: 2W 1D 1L from 4 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.75 PPG. Last five: W L W D. They are scoring at 1.75 per game and conceding 1.25. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Amed have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Eyüpspor) versus 1.75 (Amed). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Eyüpspor in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 75% of games.
Amed in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 25% versus Amed 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 50% | Amed 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.80 xG and Amed 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.936 / defence 0.906 | Amed attack 0.890 / defence 1.246. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.230. Amed bring a strong defensive rating of 1.246 — this is suppressing Eyüpspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Eyüpspor games / 4 Amed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 56% | Draw 23% | Amed 21%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Amed 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Eyüpspor (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Eyüpspor as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Eyüpspor 40% | Amed 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Amed | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Apr 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 56% | Draw 23% | Amed 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 53% | xG Eyüpspor 1.80 / Amed 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 0.936 / def 0.906 | Amed attack 0.890 / def 1.246 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Eyüpspor (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Amed xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eyüpspor vs Amed kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Amed is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 4 April 2027.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Amed part of?
Eyüpspor vs Amed is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Amed?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 56% chance of winning, Amed a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Eyüpspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Amed?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Eyüpspor and Amed will score (BTTS).
Will Eyüpspor vs Amed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Amed?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Eyüpspor and Amed in?
Eyüpspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Amed (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 1.25 | L5 W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Eyüpspor's attack rating (0.94) and Amed's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Amed's attack versus Eyüpspor's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eyüpspor Win
56%
1.77
23%
4.35
21%
4.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
2.80
0.99
Amed xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
4.87
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
16%
6.08
Win to Nil
21%
4.78
3%
29.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 10.9 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Amed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Amed expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 0.99 for Amed, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Amed?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eyüpspor's recent record stands at 1W 0D 3L from 4 games, a 0.75 PPG return, with L-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Eyüpspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Amed, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 1L across 4 games — 1.75 PPG, with W-L-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Amed, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Amed by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Eyüpspor heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Eyüpspor are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Amed are on 1.75 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eyüpspor have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Last 4 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Early Season
Amed
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eyüpspor and Amed in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 1W 0D 3L in their last 4 games (0.75 PPG), while Amed have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 (1.75 PPG).
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Amed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 25%, Amed 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Eyüpspor and 75% for Amed. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Amed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eyüpspor play Amed?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 50% of Amed's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eyüpspor vs Amed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Eyüpspor's matches and 75% of Amed's.
Do Eyüpspor and Amed tend to score early?
Eyüpspor have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Amed in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.