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Poisson model rates Eyüpspor at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Alanyaspor make the trip to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu to face Eyüpspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Sunday 19 January 2025 at 16:00 UTC.

Form

Eyüpspor (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Eyüpspor at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this season: 5W 2D 1L from 8 home games — 2.12 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.

Alanyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form ledger tips toward Eyüpspor. A 0.50 PPG lead over Alanyaspor (1.80 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Eyüpspor lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Eyüpspor — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Alanyaspor — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 61% versus Alanyaspor 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 50% | Alanyaspor 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.39 xG and Alanyaspor 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.992 / defence 0.905 | Alanyaspor attack 0.796 / defence 0.873. League average goals — home 1.606 / away 1.175. Data: 18 Eyüpspor games / 56 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 47% | Draw 33% | Alanyaspor 20%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 2.13 | Draw 3.03 | Alanyaspor 5.00. Eyüpspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Eyüpspor are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Eyüpspor if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Eyüpspor 50% | Alanyaspor 50%.

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