Eyüpspor 3-0 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eyüpspor at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Alanyaspor make the trip to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu to face Eyüpspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Sunday 19 January 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Eyüpspor (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eyüpspor at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this season: 5W 2D 1L from 8 home games — 2.12 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
Alanyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Eyüpspor. A 0.50 PPG lead over Alanyaspor (1.80 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Eyüpspor lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Eyüpspor — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Alanyaspor — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 61% versus Alanyaspor 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 50% | Alanyaspor 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.39 xG and Alanyaspor 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.992 / defence 0.905 | Alanyaspor attack 0.796 / defence 0.873. League average goals — home 1.606 / away 1.175. Data: 18 Eyüpspor games / 56 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 47% | Draw 33% | Alanyaspor 20%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 2.13 | Draw 3.03 | Alanyaspor 5.00. Eyüpspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Eyüpspor are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Eyüpspor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Eyüpspor 50% | Alanyaspor 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Jan 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 47% | Draw 33% | Alanyaspor 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Eyüpspor 1.39 / Alanyaspor 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 0.992 / def 0.905 | Alanyaspor attack 0.796 / def 0.873 | league avg home 1.606 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Eyüpspor (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Alanyaspor xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 19 January 2025 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor?
Eyüpspor 3 - 0 Alanyaspor.
Where is Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor part of?
Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 47% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 20% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Eyüpspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Eyüpspor and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Alanyaspor?
Record (1 meetings): Eyüpspor 0W | Draws 1 | Alanyaspor 0W.
What form are Eyüpspor and Alanyaspor in?
Eyüpspor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Alanyaspor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Eyüpspor's attack at 0.99x the league average against Alanyaspor's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Alanyaspor's attack (0.80x) against Eyüpspor's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 18/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eyüpspor Win
47%
2.12
33%
3.06
20%
4.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
2.24
0.85
Alanyaspor xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
4.93
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
20%
4.95
5%
19.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 9.0 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.6 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 0.85 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Eyüpspor come into this having played 18 games, going 8W 6D 4L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-W. The sample for Eyüpspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Alanyaspor sit at 1.22 PPG from 18 outings (5W 7D 6L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eyüpspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Eyüpspor's home form reads 5W 2D 1L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.12 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.67 PPG overall — Eyüpspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Alanyaspor have taken 0.88 points per game from 8 outings (1W 4D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eyüpspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Eyüpspor are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.06 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eyüpspor have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 18 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eyüpspor and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 8W 6D 4L in their last 18 games (1.67 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 5W 7D 6L in their last 18 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Alanyaspor away?
Eyüpspor's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 2.12 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Eyüpspor or Alanyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eyüpspor have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Alanyaspor in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Eyüpspor have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Eyüpspor won 3-0 on 19 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Eyüpspor have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Eyüpspor
1
Draws
0
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Alanyaspor?
From 5 meetings on record, Eyüpspor have won 4, Alanyaspor have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Eyüpspor 2-1 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Eyüpspor and Alanyaspor?
Eyüpspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 50%, Alanyaspor 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Eyüpspor and 12% for Alanyaspor.
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Alanyaspor in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eyüpspor play Alanyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 38% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eyüpspor vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Eyüpspor's recent games and 12% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eyüpspor and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Eyüpspor have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Eyüpspor run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Alanyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eyüpspor beat Alanyaspor 3-0 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 20, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.39 xG and Alanyaspor 0.85 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Eyüpspor beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Alanyaspor landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 0.99 / defence 0.91 against Alanyaspor attack 0.80 / defence 0.87, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 47% | Draw 33% | Alanyaspor 20%, with Eyüpspor to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 50%, Alanyaspor 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eyüpspor's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Eyüpspor arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.22. That form edge translated into the three points. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.