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Poisson rates Eyüpspor at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eyüpspor vs Adana Demirspor encounter.

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Match Analysis

Eyüpspor host Adana Demirspor at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 14 April 2025 at 18:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Eyüpspor stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Eyüpspor have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Adana Demirspor have recorded 0W 2D 8L from 10 outings — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Adana Demirspor away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Eyüpspor are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 1.20 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Eyüpspor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Adana Demirspor in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Eyüpspor have won 1, Adana Demirspor 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 1–0 with Eyüpspor winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Eyüpspor in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).

Adana Demirspor in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%; they fail to score in 41% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 59% versus Adana Demirspor 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 48% | Adana Demirspor 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 2.08 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.941 / defence 1.149 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.997 / defence 1.429. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.177. Adana Demirspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.429 — this is suppressing Eyüpspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Eyüpspor games / 66 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 54% | Draw 22% | Adana Demirspor 24%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 1.85 | Draw 4.55 | Adana Demirspor 4.17. Eyüpspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.08 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Eyüpspor at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eyüpspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 3.43 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Eyüpspor 60% | Adana Demirspor 60% BTTS from recent games.

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