Eyüpspor 0-1 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eyüpspor vs Trabzonspor encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Eyüpspor and Trabzonspor meet at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 27). This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 18 March 2026 at 17:00 UK time.

Current Form

Eyüpspor's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

In front of their own supporters, Eyüpspor have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Trabzonspor (all games): 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 — 2.20 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

When travelling, Trabzonspor have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Trabzonspor arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Trabzonspor edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2025, ended Eyüpspor 0–2 Trabzonspor — a Trabzonspor win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Eyüpspor half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Trabzonspor half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 50% versus Trabzonspor 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 48% | Trabzonspor 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.01 xG and Trabzonspor 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.760 / defence 1.089 | Trabzonspor attack 1.411 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.206. Eyüpspor's attack rating of 0.760 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.01. Trabzonspor have an above-average attack rating of 1.411, which lifts their away xG to 1.85. Data: built from Eyüpspor's last 62 games and Trabzonspor's last 62.

Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 18% | Draw 28% | Trabzonspor 54%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 5.66 | Draw 3.58 | Trabzonspor 1.84. Trabzonspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Trabzonspor as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Eyüpspor's last 10 home games and Trabzonspor's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Eyüpspor 40% (last 10 home games) | Trabzonspor 80% (last 10 away games).

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