Eyüpspor 1-0 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Eyüpspor at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eyüpspor vs Sivasspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu plays host to Eyüpspor versus Sivasspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Friday 31 January 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Eyüpspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Eyüpspor have gone 6W 2D 1L this season (9 games, 2.22 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
Sivasspor (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sivasspor away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Eyüpspor's 2.00 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Sivasspor's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Eyüpspor 1W, Sivasspor 0W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 1–0 with Eyüpspor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Eyüpspor half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Sivasspor half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 20% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 55% versus Sivasspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 50% | Sivasspor 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 2.35 xG and Sivasspor 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 1.072 / defence 0.815 | Sivasspor attack 0.824 / defence 1.282. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.242. Sivasspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.282 — this is suppressing Eyüpspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Eyüpspor games / 58 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 70% | Draw 20% | Sivasspor 10%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 1.43 | Draw 5.00 | Sivasspor 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Eyüpspor (70%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Eyüpspor as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Eyüpspor 44% | Sivasspor 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 31 Jan 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 70% | Draw 20% | Sivasspor 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 53% | xG Eyüpspor 2.35 / Sivasspor 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 1.072 / def 0.815 | Sivasspor attack 0.824 / def 1.282 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Eyüpspor (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.35
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Sivasspor xG
53%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eyüpspor vs Sivasspor kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Sivasspor kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 31 January 2025 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Eyüpspor vs Sivasspor?
Eyüpspor 1 - 0 Sivasspor.
Where is Eyüpspor vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Sivasspor part of?
Eyüpspor vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 70% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 10% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Eyüpspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Eyüpspor and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Eyüpspor vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Sivasspor?
Record (1 meetings): Eyüpspor 1W | Draws 0 | Sivasspor 0W.
What form are Eyüpspor and Sivasspor in?
Eyüpspor (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Sivasspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Eyüpspor's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Sivasspor's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.35. Flip it around — Sivasspor's attack (0.82x) against Eyüpspor's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 20/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eyüpspor Win
70%
1.44
20%
4.94
10%
9.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.35
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
3.18
0.83
Sivasspor xG
1.44
70%
Home win
4.94
20%
Draw
9.90
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
10%
10.48
Win to Nil
30%
3.31
1%
103.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.7 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.9 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.35 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 0.83 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Sivasspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 20 outings, Eyüpspor have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 10W 6D 4L record — L-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Eyüpspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sivasspor's form line: 6W 5D 9L from 20 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-W. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Eyüpspor are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sivasspor.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Eyüpspor have posted 2.22 PPG from 9 outings (6W 2D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.80 PPG overall — Eyüpspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sivasspor have gone 2W 1D 6L from 9 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eyüpspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Eyüpspor are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.30 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Defensively: Eyüpspor have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Blended
Sivasspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eyüpspor and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 10W 6D 4L in their last 20 games (1.80 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 6W 5D 9L in their last 20 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Sivasspor away?
Eyüpspor's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 2.22 PPG; Sivasspor away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Eyüpspor or Sivasspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eyüpspor have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Sivasspor in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Eyüpspor
0
Draws
0
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Sivasspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Eyüpspor have won 2, Sivasspor have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2025, when Eyüpspor 1-0 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Eyüpspor and Sivasspor?
Eyüpspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 44%, Sivasspor 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Eyüpspor and 67% for Sivasspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Sivasspor in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eyüpspor play Sivasspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 44% of Sivasspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eyüpspor vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Eyüpspor's matches and 67% of Sivasspor's.
Do Eyüpspor and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Eyüpspor have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Eyüpspor edge out Sivasspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eyüpspor beat Sivasspor 1-0 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 2.35 xG and Sivasspor 0.83 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Eyüpspor fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Sivasspor landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 1.07 / defence 0.81 against Sivasspor attack 0.82 / defence 1.28, drawn from 20/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 70% | Draw 20% | Sivasspor 10%, with Eyüpspor to win its most likely call at 70%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 50%, Sivasspor 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eyüpspor's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sivasspor's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Eyüpspor arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.15. That form edge translated into the three points. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Sivasspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.