Eyüpspor 1-2 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Eyüpspor take on Samsunspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Eyüpspor welcome Samsunspor to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 29). Kick-off is Monday 13 April 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Eyüpspor have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Eyüpspor at home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Samsunspor — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Samsunspor have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Eyüpspor 0.80 PPG, Samsunspor 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Eyüpspor have won 1, Samsunspor 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 Nov 2025, ended Eyüpspor 0–1 Samsunspor — a Samsunspor win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Eyüpspor in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Samsunspor in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 48% versus Samsunspor 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 48% | Samsunspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.22 xG and Samsunspor 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.720 / defence 1.046 | Samsunspor attack 0.978 / defence 1.202. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.181. Eyüpspor's attack rating of 0.720 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.22. Samsunspor's defence rating of 1.202 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Eyüpspor's projected output up. Data: built from Eyüpspor's last 64 games and Samsunspor's last 64.
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 33% | Draw 34% | Samsunspor 33%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 2.99 | Draw 2.96 | Samsunspor 3.06. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Eyüpspor 40% (last 10 home games) | Samsunspor 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 29 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 13 April 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 33% | Draw 34% | Samsunspor 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Eyüpspor 1.22 / Samsunspor 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 0.720 / def 1.046 | Samsunspor attack 0.978 / def 1.202 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Samsunspor xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor FAQs
What time does Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 13 April 2026 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor?
Eyüpspor 1 - 2 Samsunspor.
Where is Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor part of?
Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 29) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 33% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 33% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Eyüpspor and Samsunspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Eyüpspor's attack at 0.72x the league average against Samsunspor's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Samsunspor's attack versus Eyüpspor's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Eyüpspor's last 64 games and Samsunspor's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
2.99
34%
2.96
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
2.43
1.21
Samsunspor xG
2.99
33%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
10%
10.01
10%
10.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.6 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.0 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 1.21 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eyüpspor come into this having played 64 games, going 20W 15D 29L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Samsunspor sit at 1.56 PPG from 64 outings (27W 19D 18L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eyüpspor on 1.17 PPG, Samsunspor on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Eyüpspor's home form reads 13W 7D 12L across their last 32 home games, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Samsunspor have taken 1.44 points per game from their last 32 away games (12W 10D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Eyüpspor are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.36 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Current Season
Samsunspor
Current Season
Eyüpspor (Home) vs Samsunspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Eyüpspor
Current Season
Samsunspor
Current Season
❓ Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor Form FAQs
What form are Eyüpspor and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 20W 15D 29L in their last 64 games (1.17 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 27W 19D 18L in their last 64 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Samsunspor away?
Eyüpspor's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 1.44 PPG; Samsunspor away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Eyüpspor or Samsunspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eyüpspor have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Samsunspor in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from December 2024. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 13 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Samsunspor have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 8 Dec 2024, when Eyüpspor won Eyüpspor 3-0 Samsunspor.
Eyüpspor's record when hosting Samsunspor specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Eyüpspor
0
Draws
3
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Samsunspor?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Eyüpspor have won 1, Samsunspor have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Samsunspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 April 2026: Eyüpspor 1-2 Samsunspor.
Who has won more matches between Eyüpspor and Samsunspor?
Samsunspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 50%, Samsunspor 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Eyüpspor) and 53% (Samsunspor).
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Samsunspor in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Eyüpspor and Samsunspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 53% of Samsunspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Eyüpspor and Samsunspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Eyüpspor's recent games and 53% of Samsunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eyüpspor and Samsunspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 72% of Samsunspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Samsunspor defy the odds to beat Eyüpspor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Samsunspor beat Eyüpspor 1-2 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 29, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.22 xG and Samsunspor 1.21 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 0.72 / defence 1.05 against Samsunspor attack 0.98 / defence 1.20, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 33% | Draw 34% | Samsunspor 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The actual Samsunspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 48%, Samsunspor 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eyüpspor's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Samsunspor's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eyüpspor 1.17 PPG, Samsunspor 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Samsunspor win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.