Eyüpspor 1-2 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Eyüpspor take on Samsunspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 29 as Eyüpspor welcome Samsunspor to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Monday 13 April 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Eyüpspor have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Eyüpspor at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Samsunspor — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Samsunspor have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Eyüpspor 0.80 PPG, Samsunspor 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Eyüpspor, 2 for Samsunspor and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with Samsunspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Eyüpspor in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Samsunspor in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 48% versus Samsunspor 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 48% | Samsunspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.22 xG and Samsunspor 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.720 / defence 1.046 | Samsunspor attack 0.978 / defence 1.202. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.181. Eyüpspor's attack strength of 0.720 is below the league average — the 1.22 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Samsunspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.202 — this is suppressing Eyüpspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 64 Eyüpspor games / 64 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 33% | Draw 34% | Samsunspor 33%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 3.03 | Draw 2.94 | Samsunspor 3.03. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Eyüpspor 40% | Samsunspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 13 Apr 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 33% | Draw 34% | Samsunspor 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 53% | xG Eyüpspor 1.22 / Samsunspor 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 0.720 / def 1.046 | Samsunspor attack 0.978 / def 1.202 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Samsunspor xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 13 April 2026 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor?
Eyüpspor 1 - 2 Samsunspor.
Where is Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor part of?
Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 33% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 33% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Eyüpspor and Samsunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Samsunspor?
Record (3 meetings): Eyüpspor 1W | Draws 0 | Samsunspor 2W.
What form are Eyüpspor and Samsunspor in?
Eyüpspor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Samsunspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Eyüpspor's attack at 0.72x the league average against Samsunspor's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Samsunspor's attack versus Eyüpspor's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
2.99
34%
2.96
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
2.43
1.21
Samsunspor xG
2.99
33%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
10%
10.01
10%
10.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.6 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.0 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 1.21 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eyüpspor come into this having played 64 games, going 20W 15D 29L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Samsunspor sit at 1.56 PPG from 64 outings (27W 19D 18L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eyüpspor on 1.17 PPG, Samsunspor on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Eyüpspor's home form reads 13W 7D 12L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Samsunspor have taken 1.44 points per game from 32 outings (12W 10D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Eyüpspor are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.36 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Current Season
Samsunspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eyüpspor and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 20W 15D 29L in their last 64 games (1.17 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 27W 19D 18L in their last 64 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Samsunspor away?
Eyüpspor's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 1.44 PPG; Samsunspor away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Eyüpspor or Samsunspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eyüpspor have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Samsunspor in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Samsunspor have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Dec 2024, when Eyüpspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eyüpspor's record when hosting Samsunspor specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Eyüpspor
0
Draws
3
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Samsunspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Eyüpspor have won 1, Samsunspor have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Samsunspor last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Eyüpspor 1-2 Samsunspor.
Who has won more matches between Eyüpspor and Samsunspor?
Samsunspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 50%, Samsunspor 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Eyüpspor) and 53% (Samsunspor).
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Samsunspor in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eyüpspor play Samsunspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 53% of Samsunspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eyüpspor vs Samsunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Eyüpspor's recent games and 53% of Samsunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eyüpspor and Samsunspor tend to score early?
Eyüpspor have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Samsunspor in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Samsunspor defy the odds to beat Eyüpspor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Samsunspor beat Eyüpspor 1-2 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 29, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.22 xG and Samsunspor 1.21 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 0.72 / defence 1.05 against Samsunspor attack 0.98 / defence 1.20, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 33% | Draw 34% | Samsunspor 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The actual Samsunspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 48%, Samsunspor 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eyüpspor's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Samsunspor's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eyüpspor 1.17 PPG, Samsunspor 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Samsunspor win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.