Eyüpspor 4-0 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eyüpspor at 36%, yet in-form Rizespor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Eyüpspor vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Eyüpspor host Rizespor at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 33). Kick-off is Saturday 9 May 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Eyüpspor — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Eyüpspor have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Rizespor stand at 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Rizespor's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Rizespor are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
Rizespor have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 3 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Eyüpspor. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Dec 2025, ended Eyüpspor 0–3 Rizespor — a Rizespor win.
Rizespor have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Patterns
Eyüpspor in-play and half-time data (last 68 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Rizespor in-play and half-time data (last 68 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 50% versus Rizespor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 50% | Rizespor 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.33 xG and Rizespor 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.831 / defence 1.026 | Rizespor attack 1.048 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.110. Data: built from Eyüpspor's last 68 games and Rizespor's last 68.
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 36% | Draw 34% | Rizespor 30%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 2.77 | Draw 2.92 | Rizespor 3.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Eyüpspor as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rizespor (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eyüpspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Eyüpspor 50% (last 10 home games) | Rizespor 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 33 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 36% | Draw 34% | Rizespor 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Eyüpspor 1.33 / Rizespor 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 0.831 / def 1.026 | Rizespor attack 1.048 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Eyüpspor (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Rizespor xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Eyüpspor vs Rizespor FAQs
What time does Eyüpspor vs Rizespor kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Rizespor kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Eyüpspor vs Rizespor?
Eyüpspor 4 - 0 Rizespor.
Where is Eyüpspor vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Rizespor part of?
Eyüpspor vs Rizespor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 33) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 36% chance of winning, Rizespor a 30% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Eyüpspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Eyüpspor and Rizespor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Eyüpspor vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Eyüpspor's attack rating (0.83) and Rizespor's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rizespor's attack versus Eyüpspor's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Eyüpspor's last 68 games and Rizespor's last 68 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eyüpspor Win
36%
2.77
34%
2.92
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
2.52
1.19
Rizespor xG
2.77
36%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
11%
9.13
8%
12.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.7 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Eyüpspor vs Rizespor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 1.19 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Rizespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 68 outings, Eyüpspor have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 22W 16D 30L record — L-L-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Rizespor's form line: 25W 14D 29L from 68 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eyüpspor on 1.21 PPG, Rizespor on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Eyüpspor have posted 1.44 PPG from their last 34 home games (14W 7D 13L).
On the road, Rizespor have gone 8W 8D 18L from their last 34 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eyüpspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Eyüpspor are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.41 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Current Season
Rizespor
Current Season
Eyüpspor (Home) vs Rizespor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Eyüpspor
Current Season
Rizespor
Current Season
❓ Eyüpspor vs Rizespor Form FAQs
What form are Eyüpspor and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 22W 16D 30L in their last 68 games (1.21 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 25W 14D 29L in their last 68 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Rizespor away?
Eyüpspor's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 1.44 PPG; Rizespor away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2024. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 May 2026, when Eyüpspor won Eyüpspor 4-0 Rizespor.
Eyüpspor's record when hosting Rizespor specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Eyüpspor
0
Draws
4
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Eyüpspor vs Rizespor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Rizespor?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Eyüpspor have won 1, Rizespor have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Rizespor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Eyüpspor 0-2 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Eyüpspor and Rizespor?
Rizespor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 50%, Rizespor 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Eyüpspor) and 62% (Rizespor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Rizespor in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Eyüpspor vs Rizespor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Eyüpspor and Rizespor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Eyüpspor's games and 62% of Rizespor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Eyüpspor and Rizespor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Eyüpspor's matches and 62% of Rizespor's.
Do Eyüpspor and Rizespor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 74% of Rizespor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Eyüpspor run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Rizespor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eyüpspor beat Rizespor 4-0 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 33, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.33 xG and Rizespor 1.19 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Eyüpspor beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rizespor landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 0.83 / defence 1.03 against Rizespor attack 1.05 / defence 1.09, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 36% | Draw 34% | Rizespor 30%, with Eyüpspor to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 50%, Rizespor 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eyüpspor's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Rizespor's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eyüpspor 1.21 PPG, Rizespor 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eyüpspor win broke the near-deadlock. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Rizespor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.