Eyüpspor 1-1 Kayserispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eyüpspor at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eyüpspor vs Kayserispor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 15 as Eyüpspor welcome Kayserispor to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 December 2025 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Eyüpspor — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eyüpspor's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kayserispor have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kayserispor's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Eyüpspor at 0.80 PPG versus Kayserispor's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Eyüpspor have won 0, Kayserispor 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Feb 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Eyüpspor in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Kayserispor in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 50% versus Kayserispor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 48% | Kayserispor 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.36 xG and Kayserispor 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.856 / defence 0.964 | Kayserispor attack 0.913 / defence 1.251. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.365. Kayserispor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.251 — this is suppressing Eyüpspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Eyüpspor games / 50 Kayserispor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 38% | Draw 32% | Kayserispor 30%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Kayserispor 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Eyüpspor at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eyüpspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Eyüpspor 50% | Kayserispor 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Kayserispor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Dec 2025, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 38% | Draw 32% | Kayserispor 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 55% | xG Eyüpspor 1.36 / Kayserispor 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 0.856 / def 0.964 | Kayserispor attack 0.913 / def 1.251 | league avg home 1.273 / away 1.365 • Poisson stance: Eyüpspor (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Kayserispor xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eyüpspor vs Kayserispor kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Kayserispor kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 6 December 2025 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Eyüpspor vs Kayserispor?
Eyüpspor 1 - 1 Kayserispor.
Where is Eyüpspor vs Kayserispor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Kayserispor part of?
Eyüpspor vs Kayserispor is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Kayserispor?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 38% chance of winning, Kayserispor a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Eyüpspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Kayserispor?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Eyüpspor and Kayserispor will score (BTTS).
Will Eyüpspor vs Kayserispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Kayserispor?
Record (2 meetings): Eyüpspor 0W | Draws 2 | Kayserispor 0W.
What form are Eyüpspor and Kayserispor in?
Eyüpspor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Kayserispor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Eyüpspor's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Kayserispor's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Kayserispor's attack versus Eyüpspor's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eyüpspor Win
38%
2.64
32%
3.15
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
2.56
1.20
Kayserispor xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
11%
8.77
8%
12.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.6 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Kayserispor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Kayserispor expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 1.20 for Kayserispor, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Kayserispor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Eyüpspor have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 18W 11D 21L record — L-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Eyüpspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kayserispor's form line: 13W 18D 19L from 50 games, 1.14 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-W. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eyüpspor on 1.30 PPG, Kayserispor on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Eyüpspor have posted 1.64 PPG from 25 outings (12W 5D 8L).
On the road, Kayserispor have gone 4W 11D 10L from 25 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eyüpspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Eyüpspor are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Kayserispor are on 1.18 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Blended
Kayserispor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eyüpspor and Kayserispor in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 18W 11D 21L in their last 50 games (1.30 PPG), while Kayserispor have gone 13W 18D 19L in their last 50 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Kayserispor away?
Eyüpspor's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 1.64 PPG; Kayserispor away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Eyüpspor and Kayserispor runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Eyüpspor's record when hosting Kayserispor specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Eyüpspor
4
Draws
0
Kayserispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Kayserispor?
From 4 meetings on record, Eyüpspor have won 0, Kayserispor have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Kayserispor last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Kayserispor 1-1 Eyüpspor.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 52%, Kayserispor 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Eyüpspor) and 44% (Kayserispor).
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Kayserispor in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Kayserispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eyüpspor play Kayserispor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 56% of Kayserispor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eyüpspor vs Kayserispor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Eyüpspor's recent games and 44% of Kayserispor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eyüpspor and Kayserispor tend to score early?
Eyüpspor have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Kayserispor in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eyüpspor and Kayserispor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eyüpspor and Kayserispor finished level at 1-1 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 15, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.36 xG and Kayserispor 1.20 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 0.86 / defence 0.96 against Kayserispor attack 0.91 / defence 1.25, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 38% | Draw 32% | Kayserispor 30%, with Eyüpspor to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 48%, Kayserispor 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eyüpspor's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Kayserispor's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eyüpspor 1.30 PPG, Kayserispor 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.