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Poisson model rates Eyüpspor at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu plays host to Eyüpspor versus Kasımpaşa in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Eyüpspor have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Eyüpspor's home record at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Eyüpspor are significantly better at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.

Kasımpaşa (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Kasımpaşa's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Eyüpspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Kasımpaşa in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Eyüpspor, 1 for Kasımpaşa and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2024, ended 0–2 with Kasımpaşa winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Eyüpspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).

Kasımpaşa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eyüpspor 54% and Kasımpaşa 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 52% | Kasımpaşa 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.87 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 1.086 / defence 1.233 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.103 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.626 / away 1.215. Data: 33 Eyüpspor games / 70 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 43% | Draw 22% | Kasımpaşa 34%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 2.33 | Draw 4.55 | Kasımpaşa 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.87 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Eyüpspor as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Eyüpspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.53 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Eyüpspor 60% | Kasımpaşa 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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