Eyüpspor 1-0 Gençlerbirliği S.K. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eyüpspor at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eyüpspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Eyüpspor host Gençlerbirliği S.K. at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 February 2026 at 10:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Eyüpspor — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Eyüpspor have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Gençlerbirliği S.K. have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gençlerbirliği S.K., so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Eyüpspor at 1.00 PPG versus Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Eyüpspor have won 0, Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with Gençlerbirliği S.K. winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Eyüpspor in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 50% versus Gençlerbirliği S.K. 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 46% | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.40 xG and Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.874 / defence 1.091 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 0.734 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.324. Data: 58 Eyüpspor games / 22 Gençlerbirliği S.K. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 41% | Draw 34% | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 25%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 2.44 | Draw 2.94 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Eyüpspor at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eyüpspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Eyüpspor 50% | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Feb 2026, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 41% | Draw 34% | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 53% | xG Eyüpspor 1.40 / Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 0.874 / def 1.091 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 0.734 / def 1.154 | league avg home 1.384 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: Eyüpspor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Gençlerbirliği S.K. xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eyüpspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Eyüpspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.?
Eyüpspor 1 - 0 Gençlerbirliği S.K..
Where is Eyüpspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. part of?
Eyüpspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 41% chance of winning, Gençlerbirliği S.K. a 25% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Eyüpspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Eyüpspor and Gençlerbirliği S.K. will score (BTTS).
Will Eyüpspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Gençlerbirliği S.K.?
Record (1 meetings): Eyüpspor 0W | Draws 0 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1W.
What form are Eyüpspor and Gençlerbirliği S.K. in?
Eyüpspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Gençlerbirliği S.K. (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Eyüpspor's attack rating (0.87) and Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s attack versus Eyüpspor's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eyüpspor Win
41%
2.45
34%
2.90
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
2.46
1.06
Gençlerbirliği S.K. xG
2.45
41%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
14%
7.07
6%
16.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.7 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Gençlerbirliği S.K. expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 1.06 for Gençlerbirliği S.K., a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 22 outings, Eyüpspor have picked up 0.82 PPG on a 4W 6D 12L record — D-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Eyüpspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s form line: 6W 5D 11L from 22 games, 1.05 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-D. The sample for Gençlerbirliği S.K. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eyüpspor on 0.82 PPG, Gençlerbirliği S.K. on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Eyüpspor have posted 0.91 PPG from 11 outings (2W 4D 5L).
On the road, Gençlerbirliği S.K. have gone 1W 2D 8L from 11 away games — 0.45 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eyüpspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Eyüpspor are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Gençlerbirliği S.K. are on 1.27 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gençlerbirliği S.K. in 68%.
Last 22 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Blended
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eyüpspor and Gençlerbirliği S.K. in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 4W 6D 12L in their last 22 games (0.82 PPG), while Gençlerbirliği S.K. have gone 6W 5D 11L in their last 22 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Gençlerbirliği S.K. away?
Eyüpspor's home record (0.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 0.91 PPG; Gençlerbirliği S.K. away: 0.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Eyüpspor and Gençlerbirliği S.K. runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Eyüpspor
0
Draws
1
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Gençlerbirliği S.K.?
From 2 meetings on record, Eyüpspor have won 1, Gençlerbirliği S.K. have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Gençlerbirliği S.K. last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Eyüpspor 1-0 Gençlerbirliği S.K..
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Eyüpspor see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 54%, Gençlerbirliği S.K. 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Eyüpspor) and 54% (Gençlerbirliği S.K.).
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor have failed to score in 36% of games; Gençlerbirliği S.K. in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Gençlerbirliği S.K. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eyüpspor play Gençlerbirliği S.K.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Eyüpspor's games and 64% of Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eyüpspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Eyüpspor's recent games and 54% of Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eyüpspor and Gençlerbirliği S.K. tend to score early?
Eyüpspor have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Gençlerbirliği S.K. in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Eyüpspor edge out Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eyüpspor beat Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1-0 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.40 xG and Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.06 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gençlerbirliği S.K. landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 0.87 / defence 1.09 against Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 0.73 / defence 1.15, drawn from 58/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 41% | Draw 34% | Gençlerbirliği S.K. 25%, with Eyüpspor to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 46%, Gençlerbirliği S.K. 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eyüpspor's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eyüpspor 0.82 PPG, Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eyüpspor win broke the near-deadlock. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. Gençlerbirliği S.K. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.