Eyüpspor vs Erzurumspor FK Prediction & Preview
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Poisson rates Erzurumspor FK at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eyüpspor vs Erzurumspor FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Eyüpspor host Erzurumspor FK in Süper Lig (matchday 25). Kick-off is Sunday 14 March 2027 at 12:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Eyüpspor — last 10 games: 1W 0D 9L, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 2.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters, Eyüpspor have posted 3W 0D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Eyüpspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Erzurumspor FK have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Erzurumspor FK's away record over their last 6 away games: 1W 2D 3L (0.83 PPG). Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.83 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Erzurumspor FK's 1.40 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Eyüpspor's 0.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Eyüpspor, 1 for Erzurumspor FK and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Oct 2026, ended Eyüpspor 0–2 Erzurumspor FK — a Erzurumspor FK win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Eyüpspor in-play tendencies (last 11 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 82% of games.
Erzurumspor FK in-play tendencies (last 11 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 33% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 18% of Eyüpspor's games and 36% of Erzurumspor FK's. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 46% | Erzurumspor FK 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.01 xG and Erzurumspor FK 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.587 / defence 1.204 | Erzurumspor FK attack 0.774 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.317. Eyüpspor's attack rating of 0.587 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.01. Erzurumspor FK's attack rating of 0.774 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.23. Eyüpspor's defence rating of 1.204 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Erzurumspor FK's projected output up. Data: built from Eyüpspor's last 45 games and Erzurumspor FK's last 11.
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 30% | Draw 29% | Erzurumspor FK 41%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 3.31 | Draw 3.49 | Erzurumspor FK 2.43. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Erzurumspor FK are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Erzurumspor FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 61% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Eyüpspor 20% (last 10 home games) | Erzurumspor FK 50% (last 6 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Erzurumspor FK | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 25 • Kick-off: Sunday 14 March 2027 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 30% | Draw 29% | Erzurumspor FK 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Eyüpspor 1.01 / Erzurumspor FK 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 0.587 / def 1.204 | Erzurumspor FK attack 0.774 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.596 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Erzurumspor FK (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Erzurumspor FK xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Eyüpspor vs Erzurumspor FK FAQs
What time does Eyüpspor vs Erzurumspor FK kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Erzurumspor FK is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 UK time on Sunday 14 March 2027.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Erzurumspor FK part of?
Eyüpspor vs Erzurumspor FK is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 25) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Erzurumspor FK?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 30% chance of winning, Erzurumspor FK a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Erzurumspor FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Erzurumspor FK?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Eyüpspor and Erzurumspor FK will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Eyüpspor vs Erzurumspor FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Eyüpspor's attacking strength (0.59x league average) is weighed against Erzurumspor FK's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. The same calculation in reverse, Erzurumspor FK's attack versus Eyüpspor's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Eyüpspor's last 45 games and Erzurumspor FK's last 11 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Erzurumspor FK Win
30%
3.31
29%
3.49
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
2.24
1.23
Erzurumspor FK xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
9%
11.29
15%
6.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 13.1 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Eyüpspor vs Erzurumspor FK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Erzurumspor FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Erzurumspor FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 1.23 for Erzurumspor FK, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Erzurumspor FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Eyüpspor come into this having played 11 games, going 1W 0D 10L for 0.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Erzurumspor FK sit at 1.27 PPG from 11 outings (4W 2D 5L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-L across their last five.
Erzurumspor FK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Eyüpspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Eyüpspor's home form reads 1W 0D 5L across their last 6 home games, a 0.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Erzurumspor FK have taken 0.83 points per game from their last 6 away games (1W 2D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Erzurumspor FK's recent record.
The Goals Picture
Eyüpspor are averaging 0.27 goals scored and 2.73 conceded per game recently; Erzurumspor FK are on 0.91 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eyüpspor have seen both teams score in 18% of their recent games.
Defensively: Erzurumspor FK in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Blended
Erzurumspor FK
Blended
Eyüpspor (Home) vs Erzurumspor FK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Eyüpspor
Blended
Erzurumspor FK
Blended
❓ Eyüpspor vs Erzurumspor FK Form FAQs
What form are Eyüpspor and Erzurumspor FK in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 1W 0D 10L in their last 11 games (0.27 PPG), while Erzurumspor FK have gone 4W 2D 5L in their last 11 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Erzurumspor FK away?
Erzurumspor FK's away record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 0.50 PPG; Erzurumspor FK away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Eyüpspor or Erzurumspor FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eyüpspor have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Erzurumspor FK in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 1 H2H match in our data, going back to October 2026. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Eyüpspor
0
Draws
1
Erzurumspor FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Eyüpspor vs Erzurumspor FK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Erzurumspor FK?
Across the 1 head-to-head match in our data, Eyüpspor have won 0, Erzurumspor FK have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Erzurumspor FK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Erzurumspor FK 2-0 Eyüpspor.
Who has won more matches between Eyüpspor and Erzurumspor FK?
Erzurumspor FK have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 1 head-to-head match in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Erzurumspor FK see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Eyüpspor 17% BTTS, Erzurumspor FK 50%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Eyüpspor) and 67% (Erzurumspor FK).
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor have failed to score in 83% of games; Erzurumspor FK in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Erzurumspor FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Eyüpspor vs Erzurumspor FK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Eyüpspor and Erzurumspor FK matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 50% of Erzurumspor FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Eyüpspor and Erzurumspor FK matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Eyüpspor's recent games and 67% of Erzurumspor FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eyüpspor and Erzurumspor FK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 33% of Erzurumspor FK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.