Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Beşiktaş (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Eyüpspor face Beşiktaş.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Beşiktaş travel to to take on Eyüpspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 January 2027, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eyüpspor stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at , Eyüpspor have gone 4W 0D 6L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Eyüpspor are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Beşiktaş — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Beşiktaş have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Beşiktaş's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Beşiktaş are 1.20 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Beşiktaş, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for Eyüpspor.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2026, ended 0–1 with Beşiktaş winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Beşiktaş have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Eyüpspor trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Beşiktaş trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 37% versus Beşiktaş 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 46% | Beşiktaş 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.00 xG and Beşiktaş 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.694 / defence 1.240 | Beşiktaş attack 1.114 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.187. Eyüpspor's attack strength of 0.694 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 Eyüpspor games / 41 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 23% | Draw 25% | Beşiktaş 52%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 4.35 | Draw 4.00 | Beşiktaş 1.92. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Eyüpspor 20% | Beşiktaş 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Jan 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 23% | Draw 25% | Beşiktaş 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Eyüpspor 1.00 / Beşiktaş 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 0.694 / def 1.240 | Beşiktaş attack 1.114 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Beşiktaş xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 24 January 2027.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 23% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 52% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş?
Record (5 meetings): Eyüpspor 0W | Draws 1 | Beşiktaş 4W.
What form are Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş in?
Eyüpspor (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Beşiktaş (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Eyüpspor's attack at 0.69x the league average against Beşiktaş's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Beşiktaş's attack versus Eyüpspor's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 0-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
23%
4.34
25%
4.07
52%
1.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
0 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
2.64
1.64
Beşiktaş xG
4.34
23%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
1.91
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
19%
5.16
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
4%
22.40
19%
5.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 1.64 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Eyüpspor's recent record stands at 9W 9D 23L from 41 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Eyüpspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beşiktaş, meanwhile, have gone 22W 9D 10L across 41 games — 1.83 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Beşiktaş, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beşiktaş by 0.95 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Eyüpspor heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Eyüpspor have managed 6W 4D 10L from 20 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beşiktaş's away record stands at 9W 5D 6L across 20 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Eyüpspor are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.83 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Blended
Beşiktaş
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 9W 9D 23L in their last 41 games (0.88 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 22W 9D 10L in their last 41 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Beşiktaş's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 1.10 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Eyüpspor's record when hosting Beşiktaş specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Eyüpspor
1
Draws
4
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş?
From 5 meetings on record, Eyüpspor have won 0, Beşiktaş have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Beşiktaş 1-0 Eyüpspor.
Who has won more matches between Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Eyüpspor see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 35%, Beşiktaş 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Eyüpspor) and 50% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor have failed to score in 45% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eyüpspor play Beşiktaş?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 50% of Beşiktaş's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Eyüpspor's recent games and 50% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Eyüpspor have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.