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Poisson model favours Beşiktaş (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Eyüpspor face Beşiktaş.

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Analysis & Preview

A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Beşiktaş travel to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu to take on Eyüpspor. The game is scheduled for Monday 26 January 2026, 17:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Eyüpspor stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Eyüpspor have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Beşiktaş — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Beşiktaş's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Beşiktaş are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H Record

The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Beşiktaş, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Eyüpspor.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2025, ended 1–2 with Beşiktaş winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Beşiktaş have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Data

Eyüpspor trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

Beşiktaş trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 50% versus Beşiktaş 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 48% | Beşiktaş 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.00 xG and Beşiktaş 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.801 / defence 1.071 | Beşiktaş attack 1.215 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.286. Beşiktaş have an above-average attack strength of 1.215 — the away xG of 1.67 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 Eyüpspor games / 54 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 19% | Draw 31% | Beşiktaş 50%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 5.26 | Draw 3.23 | Beşiktaş 2.00. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Eyüpspor 50% | Beşiktaş 40%.

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