Eyüpspor 1-3 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eyüpspor at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Eyüpspor face Beşiktaş.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Beşiktaş travel to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu to take on Eyüpspor in Süper Lig (matchday 25). The game is scheduled for Friday 21 February 2025 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Eyüpspor stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Eyüpspor have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Beşiktaş — last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Beşiktaş's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 6D 2L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Eyüpspor 1.80 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Eyüpspor, 1 for Beşiktaş and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 22 Sep 2024, ended Eyüpspor 1–2 Beşiktaş — a Beşiktaş win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Eyüpspor trading profile (last 23 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Beşiktaş trading profile (last 23 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 52% versus Beşiktaş 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 44% | Beşiktaş 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.11 xG and Beşiktaş 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.939 / defence 0.809 | Beşiktaş attack 0.969 / defence 0.729. League average goals — home 1.620 / away 1.207. Beşiktaş bring a tight defence (rating 0.729, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Eyüpspor's projected output down. Data: built from Eyüpspor's last 23 games and Beşiktaş's last 60.
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 38% | Draw 32% | Beşiktaş 30%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 2.63 | Draw 3.08 | Beşiktaş 3.39. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Eyüpspor as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eyüpspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Eyüpspor's last 10 home games and Beşiktaş's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Eyüpspor 40% (last 10 home games) | Beşiktaş 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 25 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 21 February 2025 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 38% | Draw 32% | Beşiktaş 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Eyüpspor 1.11 / Beşiktaş 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 0.939 / def 0.809 | Beşiktaş attack 0.969 / def 0.729 | league avg home 1.620 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Eyüpspor (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Beşiktaş xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş FAQs
What time does Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Friday 21 February 2025 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş?
Eyüpspor 1 - 3 Beşiktaş.
Where is Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 25) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 38% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Eyüpspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Eyüpspor's attack at 0.94x the league average against Beşiktaş's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Beşiktaş's attack versus Eyüpspor's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Eyüpspor's last 23 games and Beşiktaş's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eyüpspor Win
38%
2.63
32%
3.08
30%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
2.06
0.95
Beşiktaş xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
3.39
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
15%
6.78
10%
10.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 12.1 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.4 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 0.95 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Eyüpspor's recent record stands at 11W 7D 5L from 23 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five.
Beşiktaş, meanwhile, have gone 10W 8D 5L across 23 games — 1.65 PPG, with W-D-D-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eyüpspor on 1.74 PPG, Beşiktaş on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Eyüpspor have managed 7W 3D 1L from their last 11 home games — 2.18 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.74 PPG overall — Eyüpspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Beşiktaş's away record stands at 3W 6D 2L across their last 11 away games, a 1.36 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eyüpspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Eyüpspor are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.48 scored and 1.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş in 65%.
Defensively: Eyüpspor have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
Eyüpspor (Home) vs Beşiktaş (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Eyüpspor
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş Form FAQs
What form are Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 11W 7D 5L in their last 23 games (1.74 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 10W 8D 5L in their last 23 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Eyüpspor's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 2.18 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Eyüpspor or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eyüpspor have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2024. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 16 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Eyüpspor's record when hosting Beşiktaş specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Eyüpspor
1
Draws
4
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Eyüpspor have won 0, Beşiktaş have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 August 2026: Beşiktaş 1-0 Eyüpspor.
Who has won more matches between Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 46%, Beşiktaş 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Eyüpspor) and 27% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Beşiktaş in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Eyüpspor vs Beşiktaş Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 64% of Beşiktaş's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Eyüpspor's recent games and 27% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eyüpspor and Beşiktaş matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 73% of Beşiktaş's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beşiktaş cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Eyüpspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Eyüpspor 1-3 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 25, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.11 xG and Beşiktaş 0.95 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Beşiktaş outscored their 0.95 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 0.94 / defence 0.81 against Beşiktaş attack 0.97 / defence 0.73, drawn from 23/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 38% | Draw 32% | Beşiktaş 30%, with Eyüpspor to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Beşiktaş win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 44%, Beşiktaş 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eyüpspor's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eyüpspor 1.74 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beşiktaş win broke the near-deadlock. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.