Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eyüpspor at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Başakşehir make the trip to to face Eyüpspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Sunday 29 November 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Eyüpspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Eyüpspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at , Eyüpspor have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Başakşehir have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Başakşehir have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Başakşehir's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Eyüpspor lead 0W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 1–2 with Başakşehir winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Eyüpspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Başakşehir goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 43% versus Başakşehir 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 46% | Başakşehir 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.40 xG and Başakşehir 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.949 / defence 0.937 | Başakşehir attack 0.991 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.217. Data: 37 Eyüpspor games / 37 Başakşehir games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 43% | Draw 27% | Başakşehir 30%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Başakşehir 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Eyüpspor as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Eyüpspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Eyüpspor 40% | Başakşehir 60%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 43% | Draw 27% | Başakşehir 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Eyüpspor 1.40 / Başakşehir 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 0.949 / def 0.937 | Başakşehir attack 0.991 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Eyüpspor (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Başakşehir xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 29 November 2026.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir part of?
Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 43% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Eyüpspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Eyüpspor and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Başakşehir?
Record (4 meetings): Eyüpspor 0W | Draws 2 | Başakşehir 2W.
What form are Eyüpspor and Başakşehir in?
Eyüpspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Eyüpspor's attack rating (0.95) and Başakşehir's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Başakşehir's attack (0.99x) against Eyüpspor's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eyüpspor Win
43%
2.32
27%
3.77
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
2.53
1.13
Başakşehir xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
14%
7.20
8%
13.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.6 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 1.13 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Eyüpspor's recent record stands at 9W 9D 19L from 37 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Eyüpspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Başakşehir, meanwhile, have gone 17W 10D 10L across 37 games — 1.65 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Başakşehir, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Başakşehir by 0.68 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Eyüpspor heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Eyüpspor have managed 6W 4D 8L from 18 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Başakşehir's away record stands at 8W 3D 7L across 18 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Eyüpspor are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.68 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Başakşehir in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Early Season
Başakşehir
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eyüpspor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 9W 9D 19L in their last 37 games (0.97 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 17W 10D 10L in their last 37 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Başakşehir away?
Başakşehir's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 1.22 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Eyüpspor or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eyüpspor have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Eyüpspor have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Başakşehir — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Eyüpspor
2
Draws
2
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Başakşehir?
From 4 meetings on record, Eyüpspor have won 0, Başakşehir have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Eyüpspor 1-2 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Eyüpspor and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Eyüpspor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 39%, Başakşehir 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Eyüpspor) and 67% (Başakşehir). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 11% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Başakşehir in 33%; Eyüpspor have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eyüpspor play Başakşehir?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 56% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Eyüpspor's matches and 67% of Başakşehir's.
Do Eyüpspor and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Eyüpspor have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.