Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Başakşehir (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Eyüpspor face Başakşehir.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Başakşehir make the trip to to face Eyüpspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Sunday 29 November 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Eyüpspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at , Eyüpspor have gone 4W 0D 6L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Eyüpspor are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Başakşehir have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L L W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Başakşehir arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Eyüpspor lead 0W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 1–2 with Başakşehir winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Eyüpspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
Başakşehir goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 38% versus Başakşehir 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 48% | Başakşehir 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.15 xG and Başakşehir 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.694 / defence 1.240 | Başakşehir attack 0.811 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.187. Eyüpspor's attack strength of 0.694 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 Eyüpspor games / 42 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 35% | Draw 28% | Başakşehir 37%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Başakşehir 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Başakşehir as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Başakşehir if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Eyüpspor 20% | Başakşehir 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 35% | Draw 28% | Başakşehir 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Eyüpspor 1.15 / Başakşehir 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 0.694 / def 1.240 | Başakşehir attack 0.811 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Başakşehir xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Sunday 29 November 2026.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir part of?
Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 35% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Eyüpspor and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Başakşehir?
Record (4 meetings): Eyüpspor 0W | Draws 2 | Başakşehir 2W.
What form are Eyüpspor and Başakşehir in?
Eyüpspor (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Eyüpspor's attack rating (0.69) and Başakşehir's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Başakşehir's attack (0.81x) against Eyüpspor's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
35%
2.86
28%
3.57
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
2.35
1.19
Başakşehir xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
11%
9.45
12%
8.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 11.4 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 1.19 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Eyüpspor's recent record stands at 9W 9D 24L from 42 games, a 0.86 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Eyüpspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Başakşehir, meanwhile, have gone 19W 11D 12L across 42 games — 1.62 PPG, with L-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Başakşehir by 0.76 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Eyüpspor heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Eyüpspor have managed 6W 4D 10L from 20 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Başakşehir's away record stands at 8W 4D 8L across 20 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Eyüpspor are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.67 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Başakşehir in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eyüpspor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 9W 9D 24L in their last 42 games (0.86 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 19W 11D 12L in their last 42 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Başakşehir away?
Başakşehir's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 1.10 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Eyüpspor or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eyüpspor have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Eyüpspor have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Başakşehir — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Eyüpspor
2
Draws
2
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Başakşehir?
From 4 meetings on record, Eyüpspor have won 0, Başakşehir have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Eyüpspor 1-2 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Eyüpspor and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Eyüpspor see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 35%, Başakşehir 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Eyüpspor) and 65% (Başakşehir). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 15% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Başakşehir in 35%; Eyüpspor have failed to score in 45% of games; Başakşehir in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eyüpspor play Başakşehir?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 50% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 45% of Eyüpspor's matches and 65% of Başakşehir's.
Do Eyüpspor and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Eyüpspor have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.