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Poisson model rates Eyüpspor at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eyüpspor vs Başakşehir fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Başakşehir make the trip to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu to face Eyüpspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Monday 31 March 2025 at 18:00 UTC.

Current Form

Eyüpspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Eyüpspor have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.

Başakşehir have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Başakşehir's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Eyüpspor lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Eyüpspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).

Başakşehir goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 59% versus Başakşehir 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 48% | Başakşehir 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.80 xG and Başakşehir 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.950 / defence 1.005 | Başakşehir attack 0.994 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.650 / away 1.194. Data: 27 Eyüpspor games / 64 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 51% | Draw 24% | Başakşehir 25%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Başakşehir 4.00. Eyüpspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Eyüpspor as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Eyüpspor if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Eyüpspor 50% | Başakşehir 50%.

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