Eyüpspor 2-1 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eyüpspor at 57% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Eyüpspor face Antalyaspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Antalyaspor travel to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu to take on Eyüpspor in Süper Lig (matchday 37). The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 May 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Eyüpspor stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Eyüpspor have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Antalyaspor — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Antalyaspor away from home: 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Eyüpspor) versus 1.40 (Antalyaspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Eyüpspor, 0 for Antalyaspor and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 4 Jan 2025, ended Eyüpspor 4–1 Antalyaspor — a Eyüpspor win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Eyüpspor in-play tendencies (last 35 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Antalyaspor in-play tendencies (last 35 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 54% versus Antalyaspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 54% | Antalyaspor 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.95 xG and Antalyaspor 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.984 / defence 1.301 | Antalyaspor attack 0.684 / defence 1.235. League average goals — home 1.604 / away 1.250. Antalyaspor's defence rating of 1.235 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Eyüpspor's projected output up. Antalyaspor's attack rating of 0.684 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.11. Eyüpspor's defence rating of 1.301 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Antalyaspor's projected output up. Data: built from Eyüpspor's last 35 games and Antalyaspor's last 72.
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 57% | Draw 22% | Antalyaspor 21%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 1.76 | Draw 4.51 | Antalyaspor 4.73. The model has a clear lean to Eyüpspor (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Eyüpspor are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Eyüpspor's last 10 home games and Antalyaspor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Eyüpspor 60% (last 10 home games) | Antalyaspor 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 37 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 24 May 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 57% | Draw 22% | Antalyaspor 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Eyüpspor 1.95 / Antalyaspor 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 0.984 / def 1.301 | Antalyaspor attack 0.684 / def 1.235 | league avg home 1.604 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Eyüpspor (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Antalyaspor xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Eyüpspor vs Antalyaspor FAQs
What time does Eyüpspor vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 24 May 2025 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Eyüpspor vs Antalyaspor?
Eyüpspor 2 - 1 Antalyaspor.
Where is Eyüpspor vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Antalyaspor part of?
Eyüpspor vs Antalyaspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 37) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 57% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Eyüpspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Eyüpspor and Antalyaspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Eyüpspor vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Eyüpspor's attack at 0.98x the league average against Antalyaspor's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Antalyaspor's attack versus Eyüpspor's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Eyüpspor's last 35 games and Antalyaspor's last 72 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eyüpspor Win
57%
1.76
22%
4.51
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
3.06
1.11
Antalyaspor xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
14%
7.03
Win to Nil
19%
5.36
3%
33.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 10.1 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Eyüpspor vs Antalyaspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 1.11 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Antalyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Eyüpspor come into this having played 35 games, going 14W 8D 13L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Antalyaspor sit at 1.29 PPG from 35 outings (12W 9D 14L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eyüpspor on 1.43 PPG, Antalyaspor on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Eyüpspor's home form reads 9W 3D 5L across their last 17 home games, a 1.76 PPG return.
Away from home, Antalyaspor have taken 0.59 points per game from their last 17 away games (2W 4D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Antalyaspor's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eyüpspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Eyüpspor are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.06 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Last 35 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Current Season
Antalyaspor
Current Season
Eyüpspor (Home) vs Antalyaspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Eyüpspor
Current Season
Antalyaspor
Current Season
❓ Eyüpspor vs Antalyaspor Form FAQs
What form are Eyüpspor and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 14W 8D 13L in their last 35 games (1.43 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 12W 9D 14L in their last 35 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Antalyaspor away?
Eyüpspor's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 1.76 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.59 PPG.
Have Eyüpspor or Antalyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eyüpspor have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Antalyaspor in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to January 2025. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 5 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Antalyaspor have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 Jan 2025, when Eyüpspor won Antalyaspor 1-4 Eyüpspor.
Eyüpspor's record when hosting Antalyaspor specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Eyüpspor
0
Draws
2
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Eyüpspor vs Antalyaspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Antalyaspor?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Eyüpspor have won 2, Antalyaspor have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Antalyaspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 April 2026: Antalyaspor 3-0 Eyüpspor.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 53%, Antalyaspor 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Eyüpspor) and 53% (Antalyaspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Antalyaspor in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Eyüpspor vs Antalyaspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Eyüpspor and Antalyaspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 47% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Eyüpspor and Antalyaspor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Eyüpspor's matches and 53% of Antalyaspor's.
Do Eyüpspor and Antalyaspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 82% of Antalyaspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Eyüpspor edge out Antalyaspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eyüpspor beat Antalyaspor 2-1 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 37, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.95 xG and Antalyaspor 1.11 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 0.98 / defence 1.30 against Antalyaspor attack 0.68 / defence 1.24, drawn from 35/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 57% | Draw 22% | Antalyaspor 21%, with Eyüpspor to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 54%, Antalyaspor 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eyüpspor's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eyüpspor 1.43 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eyüpspor win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.