Erzurumspor FK 1-0 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Samsunspor at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Erzurumspor FK and Samsunspor meet at Kazim Karabekir Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Erzurumspor FK (all games): 1W 1D 3L across 5 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Erzurumspor FK have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Samsunspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Samsunspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Samsunspor's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Samsunspor arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Erzurumspor FK half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they fail to score in 60% of games.
Samsunspor half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Erzurumspor FK 20% | Samsunspor 40%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Erzurumspor FK 60% | Samsunspor 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Erzurumspor FK 0.94 xG and Samsunspor 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Erzurumspor FK attack 0.671 / defence 1.252 | Samsunspor attack 1.006 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.176. Erzurumspor FK's attack strength of 0.671 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 5 Erzurumspor FK games / 39 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Erzurumspor FK 24% | Draw 26% | Samsunspor 50%. Fair-value odds: Erzurumspor FK 4.17 | Draw 3.85 | Samsunspor 2.00. Samsunspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Samsunspor are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Samsunspor if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Erzurumspor FK 20% | Samsunspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Kazim Karabekir Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Sep 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Erzurumspor FK 24% | Draw 26% | Samsunspor 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG Erzurumspor FK 0.94 / Samsunspor 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Erzurumspor FK attack 0.671 / def 1.252 | Samsunspor attack 1.006 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Samsunspor (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Erzurumspor FK xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Samsunspor xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor kick off?
Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 20 September 2026 at Kazim Karabekir Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor?
Erzurumspor FK 1 - 0 Samsunspor.
Where is Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Kazim Karabekir Stadyumu.
What competition is Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor part of?
Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Erzurumspor FK a 24% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 50% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Samsunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Erzurumspor FK and Samsunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Erzurumspor FK and Samsunspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Erzurumspor FK and Samsunspor in?
Erzurumspor FK (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Samsunspor (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Erzurumspor FK's attack at 0.67x the league average against Samsunspor's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Samsunspor's attack (1.01x) against Erzurumspor FK's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 5/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.5%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Samsunspor Win
24%
4.15
26%
3.80
50%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Erzurumspor FK xG
Total xG
2.42
1.48
Samsunspor xG
4.15
24%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.02
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
23%
4.39
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
5%
18.24
19%
5.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 13.1 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Erzurumspor FK and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Erzurumspor FK and 1.48 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Erzurumspor FK come into this having played 5 games, going 1W 1D 3L for 0.80 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Erzurumspor FK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Samsunspor sit at 0.80 PPG from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Samsunspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.80 PPG for Erzurumspor FK against 0.80 for Samsunspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Erzurumspor FK are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.20 scored and 2.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Erzurumspor FK have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games.
Last 5 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Erzurumspor FK
Early Season
Samsunspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Erzurumspor FK and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Erzurumspor FK have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 games (0.80 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 (0.80 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Erzurumspor FK
0
Draws
0
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Erzurumspor FK and Samsunspor?
From 1 meetings on record, Erzurumspor FK have won 1, Samsunspor have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Erzurumspor FK and Samsunspor last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when Erzurumspor FK 1-0 Samsunspor.
Who has won more matches between Erzurumspor FK and Samsunspor?
Erzurumspor FK have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Erzurumspor FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 20% (Erzurumspor FK) and 40% (Samsunspor) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Erzurumspor FK) and 40% (Samsunspor).
On the defensive side: Erzurumspor FK have failed to score in 60% of games; Samsunspor in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Erzurumspor FK home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Erzurumspor FK play Samsunspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Erzurumspor FK's recent matches and 40% of Samsunspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Erzurumspor FK's recent games and 40% of Samsunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Erzurumspor FK and Samsunspor tend to score early?
Erzurumspor FK have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Samsunspor in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Erzurumspor FK defy the odds to beat Samsunspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Erzurumspor FK beat Samsunspor 1-0 at Kazim Karabekir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 6, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Erzurumspor FK 0.94 xG and Samsunspor 1.48 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Samsunspor landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Erzurumspor FK attack 0.67 / defence 1.25 against Samsunspor attack 1.01 / defence 0.90, drawn from 5/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Erzurumspor FK 24% | Draw 26% | Samsunspor 50%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Erzurumspor FK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Erzurumspor FK 60%, Samsunspor 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Erzurumspor FK's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not.
Samsunspor's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Erzurumspor FK 0.80 PPG, Samsunspor 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Erzurumspor FK win broke the near-deadlock. Erzurumspor FK conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line. Samsunspor managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.