Erzurumspor FK vs Kasımpaşa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Erzurumspor FK vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Erzurumspor FK host Kasımpaşa at in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 December 2026 at 10:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Erzurumspor FK have gone 3W 2D 3L from 8 outings — a 1.38 PPG return. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 0.62 goals per game and conceding 1.38 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets from 8 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 12% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Erzurumspor FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Erzurumspor FK's form when playing at home: 3W 0D 1L across 4 games at this term (2.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 4 home games (75%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at . Their home PPG of 2.25 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.38 — Erzurumspor FK are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Kasımpaşa — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kasımpaşa away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Erzurumspor FK at 1.38 PPG versus Kasımpaşa's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Erzurumspor FK in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Kasımpaşa in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 38% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Erzurumspor FK 12% versus Kasımpaşa 75%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Erzurumspor FK 38% | Kasımpaşa 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Erzurumspor FK 1.13 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Erzurumspor FK attack 0.738 / defence 1.010 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.024 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.187. Erzurumspor FK's attack strength of 0.738 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 8 Erzurumspor FK games / 42 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Erzurumspor FK 34% | Draw 28% | Kasımpaşa 38%. Fair-value odds: Erzurumspor FK 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Kasımpaşa 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kasımpaşa at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Erzurumspor FK 0% | Kasımpaşa 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Erzurumspor FK vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Dec 2026, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Erzurumspor FK 34% | Draw 28% | Kasımpaşa 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Erzurumspor FK 1.13 / Kasımpaşa 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Erzurumspor FK attack 0.738 / def 1.010 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.024 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Erzurumspor FK xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Kasımpaşa xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Erzurumspor FK vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Erzurumspor FK vs Kasımpaşa is scheduled to kick off at 10:30 on Saturday 12 December 2026.
What competition is Erzurumspor FK vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Erzurumspor FK vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Erzurumspor FK vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Erzurumspor FK a 34% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Erzurumspor FK vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Erzurumspor FK and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Erzurumspor FK vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Erzurumspor FK and Kasımpaşa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Erzurumspor FK and Kasımpaşa in?
Erzurumspor FK (all comps): 3W-2D-3L in 8 | 1.38 PPG | GF 0.62 / GA 1.38 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Erzurumspor FK's attack at 0.74x the league average against Kasımpaşa's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Erzurumspor FK's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
34%
2.97
28%
3.59
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Erzurumspor FK xG
Total xG
2.36
1.23
Kasımpaşa xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
10%
10.14
12%
8.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 11.6 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.1 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Erzurumspor FK vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Erzurumspor FK and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Erzurumspor FK and 1.23 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Erzurumspor FK vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Erzurumspor FK come into this having played 8 games, going 3W 2D 3L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-W. The sample for Erzurumspor FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kasımpaşa sit at 1.62 PPG from 8 outings (3W 4D 1L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Erzurumspor FK on 1.38 PPG, Kasımpaşa on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Erzurumspor FK's home form reads 3W 0D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Erzurumspor FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Kasımpaşa have taken 1.75 points per game from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Erzurumspor FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Erzurumspor FK are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.50 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Erzurumspor FK have seen both teams score in 12% of their recent games; Kasımpaşa in 75%.
Defensively: Erzurumspor FK have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Erzurumspor FK
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Erzurumspor FK and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Erzurumspor FK have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 games (1.38 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 3W 4D 1L in their last 8 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Erzurumspor FK at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Erzurumspor FK's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Erzurumspor FK at home: 2.25 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Erzurumspor FK or Kasımpaşa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Erzurumspor FK have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Kasımpaşa in 25%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Erzurumspor FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Erzurumspor FK 0%, Kasımpaşa 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Erzurumspor FK) and 50% (Kasımpaşa).
On the defensive side: Erzurumspor FK keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Erzurumspor FK home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Erzurumspor FK play Kasımpaşa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Erzurumspor FK's recent matches and 75% of Kasımpaşa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Erzurumspor FK vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Erzurumspor FK's recent games and 50% of Kasımpaşa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Erzurumspor FK and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Erzurumspor FK have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.