Erzurumspor FK vs Kasımpaşa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Kasımpaşa at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Erzurumspor FK vs Kasımpaşa encounter.
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Match Analysis
Erzurumspor FK host Kasımpaşa at in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 December 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Erzurumspor FK have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 outings — a 0.33 PPG return. Last five: L L D. They are averaging 0.33 goals per game and conceding 2.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.67 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Erzurumspor FK have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kasımpaşa — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Kasımpaşa have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kasımpaşa away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Kasımpaşa — 1.27 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.33). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Erzurumspor FK in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Kasımpaşa in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Erzurumspor FK 33% versus Kasımpaşa 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Erzurumspor FK 67% | Kasımpaşa 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Erzurumspor FK 0.94 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Erzurumspor FK attack 0.700 / defence 1.457 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.971 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.217. Erzurumspor FK's attack strength of 0.700 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Erzurumspor FK games / 37 Kasımpaşa games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Erzurumspor FK 20% | Draw 24% | Kasımpaşa 56%. Fair-value odds: Erzurumspor FK 5.00 | Draw 4.17 | Kasımpaşa 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Kasımpaşa (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kasımpaşa at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Erzurumspor FK 33% | Kasımpaşa 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Erzurumspor FK vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Dec 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Erzurumspor FK 20% | Draw 24% | Kasımpaşa 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 50% | xG Erzurumspor FK 0.94 / Kasımpaşa 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Erzurumspor FK attack 0.700 / def 1.457 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.971 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Erzurumspor FK xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Kasımpaşa xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Erzurumspor FK vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Erzurumspor FK vs Kasımpaşa is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 13 December 2026.
What competition is Erzurumspor FK vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Erzurumspor FK vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Erzurumspor FK vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Erzurumspor FK a 20% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 56% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Erzurumspor FK vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Erzurumspor FK and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Erzurumspor FK vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Erzurumspor FK and Kasımpaşa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Erzurumspor FK and Kasımpaşa in?
Erzurumspor FK (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.33 / GA 2.67 | L5 L-L-D. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Erzurumspor FK's attack at 0.70x the league average against Kasımpaşa's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Erzurumspor FK's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.5%), 0-2 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
20%
4.89
24%
4.21
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Erzurumspor FK xG
Total xG
2.66
1.72
Kasımpaşa xG
4.89
20%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
18%
5.60
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
4%
27.39
22%
4.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 12.0 | 10.3 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Erzurumspor FK vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Erzurumspor FK and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Erzurumspor FK and 1.72 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Erzurumspor FK vs Kasımpaşa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Erzurumspor FK come into this having played 3 games, going 0W 1D 2L for 0.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Erzurumspor FK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Kasımpaşa sit at 1.67 PPG from 3 outings (1W 2D 0L), a run that reads D-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kasımpaşa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.34 PPG clear of Erzurumspor FK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Erzurumspor FK are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.00 scored and 0.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Erzurumspor FK
Early Season
Kasımpaşa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Erzurumspor FK and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Erzurumspor FK have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 1W 2D 0L in their last 3 (1.67 PPG).
Have Erzurumspor FK or Kasımpaşa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Erzurumspor FK have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Kasımpaşa in 33%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Erzurumspor FK see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Erzurumspor FK 33%, Kasımpaşa 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 67% for Erzurumspor FK and 0% for Kasımpaşa.
On the defensive side: Kasımpaşa in 33%; Erzurumspor FK have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Erzurumspor FK home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Erzurumspor FK play Kasımpaşa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Erzurumspor FK's recent matches and 67% of Kasımpaşa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Erzurumspor FK vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Erzurumspor FK's recent games and 0% of Kasımpaşa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Erzurumspor FK and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Erzurumspor FK have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.