🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Erzurumspor FK at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Erzurumspor FK vs Göztepe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Göztepe travel to to take on Erzurumspor FK. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 November 2026, 18:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Göztepe — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Göztepe haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Göztepe's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Erzurumspor FK 1.30 xG and Göztepe 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Erzurumspor FK attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Göztepe attack 0.928 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 0 Erzurumspor FK games / 34 Göztepe games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Erzurumspor FK 36% | Draw 31% | Göztepe 33%. Fair-value odds: Erzurumspor FK 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Göztepe 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Erzurumspor FK at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Erzurumspor FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights