Erzurumspor FK vs Amed – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Erzurumspor FK at 43%, yet in-form Amed provide a compelling counter-argument — this Erzurumspor FK vs Amed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
plays host to Erzurumspor FK versus Amed in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 24 January 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Erzurumspor FK's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 2D 3L from 8 games (1.38 PPG). Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 0.62 goals per game and conceding 1.38 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets from 8 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 12% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Erzurumspor FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Erzurumspor FK have posted 3W 0D 1L at — 2.25 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 4 home games (75%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at . Their home PPG of 2.25 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.38 — Erzurumspor FK are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Amed have collected 2.12 PPG across 8 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 2D 1L. Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.25 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets in 8 outings (38%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Amed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Amed have posted 0W 2D 1L from 3 away outings — 0.67 PPG. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.67 is notably below their overall 2.12 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Amed arrive in superior form — a 0.74 PPG advantage (2.12 vs 1.38) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Erzurumspor FK, 1 for Amed and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2026, ended 0–3 with Amed winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Erzurumspor FK — key trading statistics (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Amed — key trading statistics (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Erzurumspor FK 12% | Amed 50%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Erzurumspor FK 38% | Amed 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Erzurumspor FK 1.44 xG and Amed 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Erzurumspor FK attack 0.738 / defence 1.010 | Amed attack 0.993 / defence 1.239. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.187. Erzurumspor FK's attack strength of 0.738 is below the league average — the 1.44 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Amed bring a strong defensive rating of 1.239 — this is suppressing Erzurumspor FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Erzurumspor FK games / 8 Amed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Erzurumspor FK 43% | Draw 26% | Amed 31%. Fair-value odds: Erzurumspor FK 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Amed 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Erzurumspor FK are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Amed (2.12 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Erzurumspor FK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data: Erzurumspor FK 0% | Amed 67% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Erzurumspor FK vs Amed | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Jan 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Erzurumspor FK 43% | Draw 26% | Amed 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Erzurumspor FK 1.44 / Amed 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Erzurumspor FK attack 0.738 / def 1.010 | Amed attack 0.993 / def 1.239 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Erzurumspor FK (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Erzurumspor FK xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Amed xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Erzurumspor FK vs Amed kick off?
Erzurumspor FK vs Amed is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 24 January 2027.
What competition is Erzurumspor FK vs Amed part of?
Erzurumspor FK vs Amed is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Erzurumspor FK vs Amed?
Our statistical model gives Erzurumspor FK a 43% chance of winning, Amed a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Erzurumspor FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Erzurumspor FK vs Amed?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Erzurumspor FK and Amed will score (BTTS).
Will Erzurumspor FK vs Amed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Erzurumspor FK and Amed?
Record (1 meetings): Erzurumspor FK 0W | Draws 0 | Amed 1W.
What form are Erzurumspor FK and Amed in?
Erzurumspor FK (all comps): 3W-2D-3L in 8 | 1.38 PPG | GF 0.62 / GA 1.38 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Amed (all comps): 5W-2D-1L in 8 | 2.12 PPG | GF 2.25 / GA 1.12 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Erzurumspor FK's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Amed's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — Amed's attack (0.99x) against Erzurumspor FK's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Erzurumspor FK Win
43%
2.34
26%
3.85
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Erzurumspor FK xG
Total xG
2.63
1.19
Amed xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
13%
7.69
7%
13.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.4 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Erzurumspor FK vs Amed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Erzurumspor FK and Amed expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Erzurumspor FK and 1.19 for Amed, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Erzurumspor FK vs Amed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 8 outings, Erzurumspor FK have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 3W 2D 3L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Erzurumspor FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Amed's form line: 5W 2D 1L from 8 games, 2.12 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W. The sample for Amed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Amed are the form team by 0.74 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Erzurumspor FK.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Erzurumspor FK have posted 3.00 PPG from 3 outings (3W 0D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Erzurumspor FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Amed have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Amed's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Erzurumspor FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Erzurumspor FK are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Amed are on 2.25 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Erzurumspor FK have seen both teams score in 12% of their recent games.
Defensively: Erzurumspor FK have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Amed in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Erzurumspor FK
Blended
Amed
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Erzurumspor FK and Amed in coming into this match?
Erzurumspor FK have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 games (1.38 PPG), while Amed have gone 5W 2D 1L in their last 8 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Erzurumspor FK at home or Amed away?
Erzurumspor FK's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Erzurumspor FK at home: 3.00 PPG; Amed away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Erzurumspor FK or Amed been keeping clean sheets recently?
Erzurumspor FK have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Amed in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Erzurumspor FK
0
Draws
1
Amed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Erzurumspor FK and Amed?
From 1 meetings on record, Erzurumspor FK have won 0, Amed have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Erzurumspor FK and Amed last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Amed 3-0 Erzurumspor FK.
Who has won more matches between Erzurumspor FK and Amed?
Amed have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Erzurumspor FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time.
Amed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Erzurumspor FK) and 67% (Amed) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Erzurumspor FK and 67% for Amed.
On the defensive side: Erzurumspor FK keep a clean sheet in 100% of their matches; Amed in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Erzurumspor FK home games / Amed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Erzurumspor FK play Amed?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Erzurumspor FK's recent matches and 67% of Amed's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Erzurumspor FK vs Amed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Erzurumspor FK's recent games and 67% of Amed's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Erzurumspor FK and Amed tend to score early?
Erzurumspor FK have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Amed in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.