Erzurumspor FK vs Alanyaspor Prediction & Preview

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Poisson model rates Erzurumspor FK at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Erzurumspor FK face Alanyaspor.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

Erzurumspor FK host Alanyaspor in Süper Lig (matchday 24). Kick-off is Sunday 7 March 2027 at 12:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Erzurumspor FK stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Erzurumspor FK's home record over their last 5 home games: 3W 0D 2L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from their last 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across their last 10 games, Alanyaspor have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Alanyaspor's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Erzurumspor FK 1.40 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Erzurumspor FK have won 0, Alanyaspor 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 10 Oct 2026, ended Erzurumspor FK 0–0 Alanyaspor — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Erzurumspor FK in-play and half-time data (last 11 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Alanyaspor in-play and half-time data (last 11 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Erzurumspor FK 36% versus Alanyaspor 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Erzurumspor FK 54% | Alanyaspor 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Erzurumspor FK 1.40 xG and Alanyaspor 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Erzurumspor FK attack 0.701 / defence 1.116 | Alanyaspor attack 0.718 / defence 1.250. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.317. Erzurumspor FK's attack rating of 0.701 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.40. Alanyaspor's defence rating of 1.250 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Erzurumspor FK's projected output up. Alanyaspor's attack rating of 0.718 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.05. Data: built from Erzurumspor FK's last 11 games and Alanyaspor's last 45.

Result probabilities: Erzurumspor FK 45% | Draw 27% | Alanyaspor 28%. Fair-value odds: Erzurumspor FK 2.23 | Draw 3.73 | Alanyaspor 3.52. Erzurumspor FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Erzurumspor FK as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Erzurumspor FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Erzurumspor FK 20% (last 5 home games) | Alanyaspor 50% (last 10 away games).

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