Erzurumspor FK vs Alanyaspor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Erzurumspor FK at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Erzurumspor FK vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 24 as Erzurumspor FK welcome Alanyaspor to . Kick-off is set for Sunday 7 March 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Erzurumspor FK stand at 3W 2D 3L from 8 Süper Lig matches — 1.38 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 0.62 goals per game and conceding 1.38 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets from 8 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 12% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Erzurumspor FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Erzurumspor FK's home record at : 3W 0D 1L from 4 Süper Lig appearances (2.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 4 home games (75%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at . Their home PPG of 2.25 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.38 — Erzurumspor FK are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Alanyaspor have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Erzurumspor FK 1.38 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Erzurumspor FK, 0 for Alanyaspor and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 10 Oct 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Erzurumspor FK in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Alanyaspor in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Erzurumspor FK 12% | Alanyaspor 50%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Erzurumspor FK 38% | Alanyaspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Erzurumspor FK 1.13 xG and Alanyaspor 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Erzurumspor FK attack 0.738 / defence 1.010 | Alanyaspor attack 0.845 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.187. Erzurumspor FK's attack strength of 0.738 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 8 Erzurumspor FK games / 42 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Erzurumspor FK 38% | Draw 29% | Alanyaspor 32%. Fair-value odds: Erzurumspor FK 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Alanyaspor 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Erzurumspor FK as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Erzurumspor FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Erzurumspor FK 0% | Alanyaspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Erzurumspor FK vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Mar 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Erzurumspor FK 38% | Draw 29% | Alanyaspor 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Erzurumspor FK 1.13 / Alanyaspor 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Erzurumspor FK attack 0.738 / def 1.010 | Alanyaspor attack 0.845 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Erzurumspor FK (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Erzurumspor FK xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Alanyaspor xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Erzurumspor FK vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Erzurumspor FK vs Alanyaspor is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 7 March 2027.
What competition is Erzurumspor FK vs Alanyaspor part of?
Erzurumspor FK vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Erzurumspor FK vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Erzurumspor FK a 38% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Erzurumspor FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Erzurumspor FK vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Erzurumspor FK and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Erzurumspor FK vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Erzurumspor FK and Alanyaspor?
Record (1 meetings): Erzurumspor FK 0W | Draws 1 | Alanyaspor 0W.
What form are Erzurumspor FK and Alanyaspor in?
Erzurumspor FK (all comps): 3W-2D-3L in 8 | 1.38 PPG | GF 0.62 / GA 1.38 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Alanyaspor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Erzurumspor FK's attack rating (0.74) and Alanyaspor's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Erzurumspor FK's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Erzurumspor FK Win
38%
2.61
29%
3.39
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Erzurumspor FK xG
Total xG
2.15
1.01
Alanyaspor xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
14%
7.20
10%
9.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 11.8 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.4 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Erzurumspor FK vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Erzurumspor FK and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Erzurumspor FK and 1.01 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Erzurumspor FK vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 8 outings, Erzurumspor FK have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 3W 2D 3L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Erzurumspor FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alanyaspor's form line: 3W 3D 2L from 8 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-L. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Erzurumspor FK on 1.38 PPG, Alanyaspor on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Erzurumspor FK have posted 2.25 PPG from 4 outings (3W 0D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Erzurumspor FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Erzurumspor FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Erzurumspor FK are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.00 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Erzurumspor FK have seen both teams score in 12% of their recent games.
Defensively: Erzurumspor FK have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Alanyaspor in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Erzurumspor FK
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Erzurumspor FK and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Erzurumspor FK have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 games (1.38 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 3W 3D 2L in their last 8 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Erzurumspor FK at home or Alanyaspor away?
Erzurumspor FK's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Erzurumspor FK at home: 2.25 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Erzurumspor FK or Alanyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Erzurumspor FK have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Alanyaspor in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Erzurumspor FK
1
Draws
0
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Erzurumspor FK and Alanyaspor?
From 1 meetings on record, Erzurumspor FK have won 0, Alanyaspor have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Erzurumspor FK and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when Alanyaspor 0-0 Erzurumspor FK.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Erzurumspor FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Alanyaspor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Erzurumspor FK 0% BTTS, Alanyaspor 50%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Erzurumspor FK) and 75% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Erzurumspor FK keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Erzurumspor FK home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Erzurumspor FK play Alanyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Erzurumspor FK's recent matches and 50% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Erzurumspor FK vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Erzurumspor FK's recent games and 75% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Erzurumspor FK and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Erzurumspor FK have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.