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Poisson model rates Bodrum FK at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bodrum FK vs Sivasspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Bodrum FK host Sivasspor at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 13 December 2024 at 17:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Bodrum FK have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Bodrum FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Bodrum FK have posted 2W 1D 4L at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Sivasspor — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Sivasspor have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Bodrum FK) versus 1.10 (Sivasspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Trading Patterns

Bodrum FK in-play and half-time data (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 64% of games.

Sivasspor in-play and half-time data (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodrum FK 29% versus Sivasspor 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodrum FK 36% | Sivasspor 71%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bodrum FK 1.21 xG and Sivasspor 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodrum FK attack 0.620 / defence 0.921 | Sivasspor attack 0.980 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.610 / away 1.229. Bodrum FK's attack strength of 0.620 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sivasspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.212 — this is suppressing Bodrum FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Bodrum FK games / 53 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bodrum FK 37% | Draw 31% | Sivasspor 32%. Fair-value odds: Bodrum FK 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Sivasspor 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Bodrum FK as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bodrum FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bodrum FK 29% | Sivasspor 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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