Bodrum FK 3-1 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Konyaspor at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodrum FK vs Konyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu plays host to Bodrum FK versus Konyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 24 August 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Bodrum FK's overall Süper Lig record this term: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Bodrum FK have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Konyaspor (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Konyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Konyaspor are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodrum FK 1.05 xG and Konyaspor 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodrum FK attack 0.689 / defence 1.068 | Konyaspor attack 1.114 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.277. Bodrum FK's attack strength of 0.689 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 2 Bodrum FK games / 40 Konyaspor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Bodrum FK 25% | Draw 29% | Konyaspor 46%. Fair-value odds: Bodrum FK 4.00 | Draw 3.45 | Konyaspor 2.17. Konyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Konyaspor as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodrum FK vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodrum FK 25% | Draw 29% | Konyaspor 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Bodrum FK 1.05 / Konyaspor 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Bodrum FK attack 0.689 / def 1.068 | Konyaspor attack 1.114 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Bodrum FK xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Konyaspor xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodrum FK vs Konyaspor kick off?
Bodrum FK vs Konyaspor kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Bodrum FK vs Konyaspor?
Bodrum FK 3 - 1 Konyaspor.
Where is Bodrum FK vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu.
What competition is Bodrum FK vs Konyaspor part of?
Bodrum FK vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Bodrum FK vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Bodrum FK a 25% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 46% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodrum FK vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Bodrum FK and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Bodrum FK vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodrum FK and Konyaspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bodrum FK and Konyaspor in?
Bodrum FK (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L. Konyaspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bodrum FK's attack at 0.69x the league average against Konyaspor's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (1.11x) against Bodrum FK's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
The sample (2/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.0%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
25%
4.06
29%
3.46
46%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Bodrum FK xG
Total xG
2.57
1.52
Konyaspor xG
4.06
25%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.15
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
22%
4.57
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
5%
18.55
16%
6.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 11.6 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodrum FK vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Bodrum FK and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Bodrum FK and 1.52 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodrum FK vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bodrum FK's recent record stands at 0W 0D 2L from 2 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Bodrum FK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Konyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 1L across 2 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Konyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Konyaspor by 1.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bodrum FK heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bodrum FK are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor in 100%.
Last 2 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodrum FK
Early Season
Konyaspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodrum FK and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Bodrum FK have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Bodrum FK
0
Draws
1
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodrum FK and Konyaspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Bodrum FK have won 1, Konyaspor have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bodrum FK and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2025, when Konyaspor 3-1 Bodrum FK.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodrum FK home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodrum FK play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Bodrum FK's games and 100% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bodrum FK vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Bodrum FK's matches and 100% of Konyaspor's.
Do Bodrum FK and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Bodrum FK have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bodrum FK cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Konyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodrum FK beat Konyaspor 3-1 at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu, Regular Season - 3, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodrum FK 1.05 xG and Konyaspor 1.52 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Bodrum FK beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodrum FK attack 0.69 / defence 1.07 against Konyaspor attack 1.11 / defence 1.03, drawn from 2/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Bodrum FK 25% | Draw 29% | Konyaspor 46%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Bodrum FK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodrum FK 50%, Konyaspor 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Konyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Bodrum FK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bodrum FK scored 3 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line. Konyaspor managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.